Economics

6 September 2016

Meanwhile, the Rest of the World Markets had a Work Day

Several developments took place while US markets were closed for its Labor Day holiday.  Most of the economic news was favorable.  This included a strong snap back in the UK service PMI,  more evidence that the moral suasion campaign to...

5 September 2016

ECB Grabs Central Bank Watchers’ Attention

The last two weeks have been about the US.  First, it was Jackson Hole. The leadership of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, Dudley and Fischer sang from the same songbook. They all signaled that the time was approaching to take another...

5 September 2016

Buck(ing) the Data

The US dollar showed an unexpected resiliency to the disappointing August employment data.  The dollar's resilience in the face of the jobs data may reflect that many see the report did not alter investors' or policymakers' information set.  It did not...

2 September 2016

Working (Harder) for a Living

  On Labor Day, politicians have traditionally paid lip service to the plight of the worker, whom the national holiday is meant to honor. With working-class struggles taking center stage in this year’s election, we will likely hear from them...

2 September 2016

Trade Deal Opposition Appears to be a Sign of the Times

  It seems that the world has become unsafe for trade agreements. In particular, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a major new trade deal among the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations, has become a political lightning rod for both the...

2 September 2016

Now about that September Rate Hike

The US grew 151k jobs last month and when coupled with the 20k upward revision to the July figure the net job creation is not far from the 170k-180k median expectation.  However, the details were more disappointing.  Average hourly earnings...

2 September 2016

Jobs Report, and more about UK Data

The US dollar is little changed ahead of the job report.  Our near-term bias is for a lower dollar.   Sterling is flat and is holding on to about a 1% gain this week.  The Japanese yen is about a 0.3%...

1 September 2016

Globalization Meets Protectionism

Globalisation has contributed to the growth of China for decades but the rise of protectionism in Western economies could curb Chinese trade and investment. Globalisation has contributed to the growth of China for decades but the rise of protectionism in...

31 August 2016

‘No First Use’ Fallout

Hugh White’s views on the dangers of the United States moving to a ‘No First Use’ nuclear posture are inherently unpersuasive. The virtues of a ‘No First Use’ policy have been crisply spelled out by Ramesh Thakur, for instance, in...

31 August 2016

Can China Mitigate Rising Global Protectionism?

As China assumes G20 leadership, the prospect of global “protectionism” is on the rise and the stakes could not be higher for cooperation and major structural reforms. Without continued investment and trade, secular stagnation in advanced economies and growth deceleration...

30 August 2016

With Globalization, You’ll Need Skills

Concern over the employment consequences of globalisation is again driving political debate. Look no further than the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union and the rise of protectionism in American and Australian politics to see the disenfranchisement of low-skill...

30 August 2016

Decoding the R* (R-Star) Mystery

The market recognizes that the indication by the FOMC at the end of last year that four rates hikes in 2016 may be appropriate was far from the mark.  At the same time, investors are coming around to the prospects...