Featured Articles
A Lenient EU May Become More So
The EU is warning that Austria, Italy, and Lithuania are at risk of not achieving their 2016 budget goals. It also warned Spain that is too might miss its target. Nevertheless, the EU said there were no serious violations. The...
Imagine an EU without the UK
Europe is always a heated topic at a Conservative party conference. This year much debate has focused on David Cameron’s ongoing renegotiation of terms for staying in the EU. By contrast, the terms on which a Brexit might happen have...
The Way Forward for Europe
German Finance Minister Schaeuble claims that he raised the possibility of a Greek exit to push for an alternative, and he did so with backing of the Merkel government. He used the threat of a violating the "irreversible clause" of...
Draghi’s ‘Whatever It Takes’ Pledge Turns Three Years Old and Comes with New Warnings
Three years ago this month, ECB President Draghi issued his now-famous pledge to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro. Indeed, it has done its part. The ECB has a negative deposit rate, something that even with a protracted...
Investor Focus Remains on Europe
The markets remain off-kilter. The dollar has recouped a little of the ground lost yesterday. Reports in a Greek paper that Tsipras may be reconsidering Juncker's proposal may prevent a deeper pullback in the euro, which found a bid near...
The EU “AG” (After Greece)
Critics of the Greek government repeatedly claim that its radicalism prevents a resolution to the crisis. Yet the EC has indicated that the difference between the creditors’ proposal and Syriza's plans amounts to 2 bln euro a year in government...
You’ve Got to Have Faith (In the EU)
The media often depicts a European Union that is unraveling. The financial crisis, high unemployment, and demands for austerity for as far as the eye can see have undermined confident in the European project. Syriza and Podemos from the Left and...
Greater Integration Through Crisis
The pre-Socratic Heraclitus was the philosopher of change. He wrote, "no man steps in the same river twice; for it is not the same river and he is not the same man." Truth that. The pre-Socratic Heraclitus was the philosopher...
The Corporate Response to a ‘Brexit’ is Complicated
The die is cast: British people have voted for a government that has promised to hold a referendum on the UK’s EU membership by 2017. This week, business has intervened to liven up the debate. The country’s main industry lobby...
Breaking the EU’s Crisis to Crisis Cycle
Just months since taking power in January, Greek’s Syriza coalition faces obstacles at every turn, from an intransigent European Central Bank to an unyielding European Council. The ECB in particular has rejected Greek proposals for short-term bridge financing to allow...
An EU without a UK?
“We would be substantially better off not being in the EU because the opportunity cost of us not being able to make our own trade deals with the emerging economies of the world is holding back British business. In terms...
A Weak Euro Begins the Week as European Manufacturing Data Disappoints
The week begins with a narrowly mixed US dollar. Both Tokyo and London markets are closed today making for somewhat lighter turnover. The dollar has been trading a quarter of a yen above JPY120.00. The euro stands out. It has...
The Euro Reaches a Buying Opportunity, European Bonds Continue to Sell Off on Mixed Data
The euro pullback spurred by the Federal Reserve statement that continued to regard the slowdown as having to been partly caused by transitory factors, was seized upon in Europe as a new buying opportunity. Support is seen near previous resistance...
‘Economic-Only’ vs. ‘Economic-Plus-Political’ EU Membership
Norway is often held aloft as an example that the UK could follow in discussions about a potential British exit from the EU (the so-called Brexit). The Norwegian experience with the EU is unique. It shows it is possible for a...
Where is Greece on Germany’s Priority List?
After several months of tense and often antagonistic negotiations, Greece and its creditors appear to be at a stalemate. In order to receive a further bail-out funds, the Syriza government has proposed a set of reforms that in the view...