Economics

30 September 2016

The euro is trading at its lowest level against the Norwegian krone since August 2015.  The euro is near its best levels against the Swedish krona in nearly as long. ...

Featured Articles

27 September 2016

TPP Passage Less Likely

When President Barack Obama said, ‘The TPP means that America will write the rules of the road in the 21st century’, he was not speaking metaphorically. Large passages in the final text were lifted verbatim, sometimes en masse, from past...

26 September 2016

Idiosyncratic Risk and Dollar Movement

The US dollar is narrowly mixed.  The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer.  The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic, country-level...

26 September 2016

Global Political Developments Take Center Stage

The major central banks have placed down their markers and have moved to stage left.  There are the late-month high frequency data, which pose some headline risks in the week ahead.  The focus for most investors will be on several...

23 September 2016

Natural Disasters could Trash ASEAN

The recently concluded 28th and 29th ASEAN Summits in Vientiane, Laos again saw ASEAN give a muted response to the more contentious issues facing member states. This is largely a result of conflicting national interests between members in the absence...

23 September 2016

When did Australia’s Pacific Influence Begin to Slip?

Australia has vastly more material resources than its Pacific neighbours. It represents 94.5 percent of the region’s GDP, 98 percent of defence and security spending and contributes 60 percent of total development assistance. Based on a simple comparison of size...

23 September 2016

A Random Pattern

As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged.  If you flip a coin, and it is tails...

22 September 2016

Did the Fed Make the Right No-Call?

The Federal Reserve decided to leave its target interest rate unchanged at a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent while suggesting a hike later in the year was very likely. The Federal Reserve decided to leave its target interest rate unchanged at a range...

22 September 2016

See You in December

The US dollar has lost another 0.5% against most of the major currencies today, as Asia and Europe respond to the Fed's decision.  There are few exceptions to this generalization.  The Norwegian krone has gained nearly three times as much,...

21 September 2016

Japan’s LDP could Use Some Competition

For close to 40 years after 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) dominated Japan’s competitive party system. Opposition parties were not able to mount a successful challenge to LDP rule at the national level, but they had an important impact...

21 September 2016

Maybe there is another Way to Weaken the Yen

Much of what the Bank of Japan announced today had been largely leaked.  While there was a sizeable response in the asset markets, the dollar's knee-jerk gains against the yen were quickly unwound.  The BOJ lifted its self-imposed restrictions on...

21 September 2016

Can Negative Interest Rates be Beneficial?

The ultra-low and negative interest rate environment in advanced economies and its implications for the rest of the world are currently among the top concerns of financial market participants and policy makers worldwide. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank...

20 September 2016

Indonesia and Singapore need to Think Long Term

Relations have been good between Singapore and Indonesia, but challenges still lie ahead. The upcoming leaders’ retreat for Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and his Indonesian counterpart, President Joko Widodo, will coincide with the golden anniversary (50 years) of...

20 September 2016

Japan Challenges China’s African Influence

Africa is becoming a new strategic playground where economic and geopolitical rivalry between Asian powers compels Japan to compete in a contemporary struggle for influence. Japan’s decision to hold the Sixth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) on African...

20 September 2016

The BOJ Unknown and the FOMC Sort of Known

Tomorrow's Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings are serving to dampen activity in the foreign exchange market.  The US dollar is little changed against the euro, yen, and sterling.  The Antipodeans are firm. Tomorrow's Bank of Japan and Federal...