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See You in December
The US dollar has lost another 0.5% against most of the major currencies today, as Asia and Europe respond to the Fed's decision. There are few exceptions to this generalization. The Norwegian krone has gained nearly three times as much,...
Merkel’s Support Fades, as does the Dollar’s
The US dollar, which finished last week on a firm note, is under pressure to start the new week that features Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings. The slighter stronger August CPI reading helped lift the greenback ahead of...
The Fed Meeting is Overshadowing European Politics
Yellow lights are flashing. Bonds remain heavy despite a weak spate of data that would seem to remove nearly any chance that Fed will hike rates next week. The implications of the disappointing retail sales data indicates that estimates for...
The Day’s Data/Events Likely not to Push the Needle
Looking at the diary, today is the most important day of the week. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank meet. The UK reports retail sales. EMU reports CPI figures. The US reports retail sales, industrial output, and...
Searching for Stability
The markets are trying to catch their collective breath after yesterday's dramatic moves. The sharp slide in US equities may have weighed on Asian markets, but losses are mild. Still, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index was off 0.8%, the fifth consecutive...
When Governor Brainard Talks, People Listen
Stocks and bonds have begun the new week much like last week ended. Sharp losses are being recorded. The US dollar is mixed, with minor losses against the euro, yen, and sterling, but a firmer tone is evident against the...
Expectations are for a Capital Market Continuation
The week ahead will likely be shaped by a combination of what happened last week and what will happen the week after next. The end of last week saw a sell-off in equities and bonds and a recovery in the...
Europe (German Data) Sets a Heavy Tone
The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out. On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed. Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly...
Investor Response to Rate Change Prospects has been Uneven
Disappointing industrial output figures from Germany and UK are helping stabilize the US dollar after yesterday's shellacking. Investors have been fickle about the prospects for a rate hike this month, and the unexpected dramatic slide in the service spurred a...
Another Round of Central Bank Meetings begins Down Under
The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the major and emerging market currencies. However, the losses are modest, and the greenback remains within recent ranges. The Antipodean and Scandi bloc currencies are performing best. The US dollar is...
Meanwhile, the Rest of the World Markets had a Work Day
Several developments took place while US markets were closed for its Labor Day holiday. Most of the economic news was favorable. This included a strong snap back in the UK service PMI, more evidence that the moral suasion campaign to...
Buck(ing) the Data
The US dollar showed an unexpected resiliency to the disappointing August employment data. The dollar's resilience in the face of the jobs data may reflect that many see the report did not alter investors' or policymakers' information set. It did not...
Now about that September Rate Hike
The US grew 151k jobs last month and when coupled with the 20k upward revision to the July figure the net job creation is not far from the 170k-180k median expectation. However, the details were more disappointing. Average hourly earnings...
Jobs Report, and more about UK Data
The US dollar is little changed ahead of the job report. Our near-term bias is for a lower dollar. Sterling is flat and is holding on to about a 1% gain this week. The Japanese yen is about a 0.3%...
First its the Jobs Estimate, then the Data, while the Dollar Waits
The US dollar is a little softer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The exception is the Japanese yen, where the greenback has moved above JPY103 for the first time in a month. The tone is consolidative...