Economic Conditions

30 September 2016

True to its recent habit, the US dollar is finishing the week on a firm note.  On the month, though, the greenback has fallen against most of the majors, but sterling, the Canadian dollar, and the Swedish krona.  True to its recent habit, the US dollar is finishing the week on a firm note.  On the month, though, the greenback has fallen against most of the majors, but sterling, the Canadian dollar, and the Swedish krona.  Global equities are trading heavily, and investors' angst is lending support to bond markets.  The concerns about the contagion effect emanating from Germany’s largest...

Featured Articles

20 July 2022

Putin Warns the E.U. That Gas Supplies Could Keep Dwindling

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated that it’s the fault of the Western government that the country’s supply of natural gas to European customers has shrunk. He warned that the situation will worsen if the West’s sanction against Russia continues....

28 September 2016

Without Monetary Policy Insight, Dollar Runs in Place

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week.  It is within well-worn ranges.  Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments.  The US dollar...

26 September 2016

Idiosyncratic Risk and Dollar Movement

The US dollar is narrowly mixed.  The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer.  The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic, country-level...

23 September 2016

A Random Pattern

As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged.  If you flip a coin, and it is tails...

22 September 2016

See You in December

The US dollar has lost another 0.5% against most of the major currencies today, as Asia and Europe respond to the Fed's decision.  There are few exceptions to this generalization.  The Norwegian krone has gained nearly three times as much,...

19 September 2016

Merkel’s Support Fades, as does the Dollar’s

The US dollar, which finished last week on a firm note, is under pressure to start the new week that features Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings.  The slighter stronger August CPI reading helped lift the greenback ahead of...

15 September 2016

The Fed Meeting is Overshadowing European Politics

Yellow lights are flashing.  Bonds remain heavy despite a weak spate of data that would seem to remove nearly any chance that Fed will hike rates next week.  The implications of the disappointing retail sales data indicates that estimates for...

15 September 2016

The Day’s Data/Events Likely not to Push the Needle

Looking at the diary, today is the most important day of the week. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank meet.  The UK reports retail sales.  EMU reports CPI figures.  The US reports retail sales, industrial output, and...

14 September 2016

Searching for Stability

The markets are trying to catch their collective breath after yesterday's dramatic moves.  The sharp slide in US equities may have weighed on Asian markets, but losses are mild. Still, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index was off 0.8%, the fifth consecutive...

12 September 2016

When Governor Brainard Talks, People Listen

Stocks and bonds have begun the new week much like last week ended.  Sharp losses are being recorded.  The US dollar is mixed, with minor losses against the euro, yen, and sterling, but a firmer tone is evident against the...

9 September 2016

Europe (German Data) Sets a Heavy Tone

The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out.  On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed.  Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly...