Economic Conditions

17 August 2016

Fed President Dudley Upbeat on H2 U.S. Growth

The US dollar is enjoying a mid-week bounce against all the major currencies.  It appears that participants in Asia and Europe are giving more credence to NY Fed Dudley's comments yesterday. Although many in the market have given up on...

15 August 2016

So Much to Watch with Only Two Eyes

Japan's Q2 GDP:  The week begins off with the first estimate of Japan's Q2 GDP.  Growth is expected to slow from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.2%-0.3% in Q2. Consumption likely slowed more than investment increased.  The GDP deflator, another measure of...

15 August 2016

Economic Data may not Help the Dollar

The dollar's push lower that we anticipate until later in the month gained momentum following the disappointing US retail sales report before the weekend.  The dollar's technical tone has deteriorated, while the economic data is unlikely to be sufficient to...

9 August 2016

A Heavy Pound

In an otherwise uneventful foreign exchange market, sterling's slide for its fifth consecutive session is the highlight.  It was pushed below $1.30 for the first time since July 12.  Initial resistance for the North American session is seen near $1.3020,...

8 August 2016

The Macroeconomic Picture Comes to the Fore

The drip-feed of high frequency economic data from the major economies slows in the week ahead. The data that is reported is unlikely to have much impact on the expectations of policy going forward. The state of play is fairly...

5 August 2016

At Least the U.S. Created Jobs…Canada, not So Much

The market's angst over the underlying trend in the US labor market eases with the help of the second consecutive robust report.  The 255k rise in non-farm payrolls was well above expectations, and the details were mostly favorable. There were...

5 August 2016

The U.S. Jobs Backstory

The focus is squarely on the US employment data today, ahead of which the capital markets are mostly consolidating yesterday's Bank of England inspired moved. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, alongside sterling, which is up about half a cent...

3 August 2016

PMIs Make News and the Dollar takes a Break

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses.  The greenback's upticks have thus far been shallow and unimpressive, except perhaps against the New Zealand dollar, which is off 0.8% ahead of next week's RBNZ meeting.  Softer than expected labor cost increase...

2 August 2016

Durable Goods Prices are Falling

This Great Graphic is deceptively simple.  It is chart from the Bureau of Economic Analysis based on the price indices from components of personal consumption expenditure. The rust line is service prices.  They are steadily increasing.  No deflation or disinflation...