Economic Conditions

The week ahead will likely be shaped by a combination of what happened last week and what will happen the week after next.  The end of last week saw a sell-off in equities and bonds and a recovery in the...

The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out.  On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed.  Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly...

Disappointing industrial output figures from Germany and UK are helping stabilize the US dollar after yesterday's shellacking.  Investors have been fickle about the prospects for a rate hike this month, and the unexpected dramatic slide in the service spurred a...

The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the major and emerging market currencies. However, the losses are modest, and the greenback remains within recent ranges.  The Antipodean and Scandi bloc currencies are performing best.  The US dollar is...

Several developments took place while US markets were closed for its Labor Day holiday.  Most of the economic news was favorable.  This included a strong snap back in the UK service PMI,  more evidence that the moral suasion campaign to...

The US dollar showed an unexpected resiliency to the disappointing August employment data.  The dollar's resilience in the face of the jobs data may reflect that many see the report did not alter investors' or policymakers' information set.  It did not...

The US grew 151k jobs last month and when coupled with the 20k upward revision to the July figure the net job creation is not far from the 170k-180k median expectation.  However, the details were more disappointing.  Average hourly earnings...

The US dollar is little changed ahead of the job report.  Our near-term bias is for a lower dollar.   Sterling is flat and is holding on to about a 1% gain this week.  The Japanese yen is about a 0.3%...

The US dollar is a little softer against most of the major and emerging market currencies.  The exception is the Japanese yen, where the greenback has moved above JPY103 for the first time in a month.  The tone is consolidative...

The market recognizes that the indication by the FOMC at the end of last year that four rates hikes in 2016 may be appropriate was far from the mark.  At the same time, investors are coming around to the prospects...

The US dollar is trading firmly, largely within yesterday's ranges.  The odds implied by the September Fed fund futures eased to 36% from 42% before the weekend, but ahead of Fischer's Bloomberg TV appearance, and tomorrow's ADP employment estimate, the...

With 17 simple words and the help of clarification from her deputy, Yellen changed the near-term dynamics in the capital markets.  By saying that "...I believe that case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent...

The US dollar had spent the last full week of August mostly confined to narrow trading ranges against the major currencies until the Yellen spoke as at the end of the week.  She confirmed the constructive assessment of the economy...

The US dollar remains mostly within the ranges seen yesterday against the major currencies. The market awaits fresh trading incentives and the end of the summer lull, which is expected next week.  The Jackson Hole Fed gathering at which Yellen...

The US dollar is going nowhere fast.  It is narrowly mixed against the major currencies.  The market waits for fresh trading incentives, with much hope placed on Yellen's presentation at Jackson Hole at the end of the week.  Is it...