The market has not changed its mind.  Following Brainard's comments yesterday the market had downgraded the chances, which were already modest, of a Fed hike next week.  The September Fed funds futures is unchanged on the day.  The implied yield...

Our approach to Fed-watching is clear:  Among the cacophony of voices, the Troika of Fed leadership, Yellen, Fischer and Dudley provide the clearest signal. They are most often on message, and their comments have been the best indications of policy.  ...

The shaving of 2017 and 2018 growth forecasts, recognition of continued downside risks did not prompt the ECB to adjust monetary policy.  Rates were left unchanged, as widely expected.  The ECB also refrained from extending the asset purchases.  This is...

The last two weeks have been about the US.  First, it was Jackson Hole. The leadership of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, Dudley and Fischer sang from the same songbook. They all signaled that the time was approaching to take another...

  The world changed after the financial crisis in 2008. What lessons can we draw on the role of central banks since then? There are at least four lessons we have learned.     The world changed after the financial...

The US dollar staged a strong pre-weekend rally on hints that the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year.  There was initially follow through dollar buying in Asia before a more stable tone emerged in Europe, where...

Yellen's presentation at Jackson Hole today is the highlight of the week.  It also marks the end of the summer for many North American and European investors.  It may be a bit of a rolling start for US participants, until...

Former Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, and now a professor at the University of Rochester used this Great Graphic in a recent Bloomberg column. Kocherlakota was a dove when he was at the Fed and remains dovish.  He is concerned that...

The US dollar has fallen against all the major currencies this month. Even the pound has gained about 0.3% against the heavy greenback.  What is most striking about the dollar's decline is that is has taken place despite a modest...

Last week, some market participants were giving more credence to what seemed like dovish FOMC minutes than to NY Fed President Dudley's remarks that accused investors of complacency over the outlook for rates.  Yesterday, Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Fischer...

It is not a good day for the US dollar.  It is being sold across the board.  The seemingly dovish FOMC minutes released late yesterday appears to have gotten the ball rolling.  The takeaway for many was that any officials...

  On September 18 2016, Glenn Stevens will end his ten-year mandate as governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). His experience in the top job provides a wealth of lessons for the next generation of policymakers; that’s arguably...

Former Fed Chair Bernanke keeps a blog at Brookings.  His latest post offers insight into how to think about Federal Reserve, and in particular, Fed officials' understanding of the US economy.  Former Fed Chair Bernanke keeps a blog at Brookings. ...

Sterling has slumped two cents in the wake of the Bank of England's announcement.  It cut the base rate 25 bp and announced a resumption of its asset purchase program.  It will buy GBP60 bln of Gilts and added corporate...

The Bank of England owns today, though tomorrow will be about the US jobs report. The BOE disappointed the market last month by not immediately responding to the UK referendum.  It had laid out a somber economic and financial scenario...