Emerging Markets

26 September 2016

EM initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend.  One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria.  However, it wasn’t just EM, as the greenback closed firmer against the majors as well. ...

Featured Articles

22 August 2016

Emerging Markets React to Dudley and FOMC Minutes

EM ended last week on a soft note.  Fed tightening expectations were buffeted first by hawkish Dudley comments and then by the more balanced FOMC minutes.  On net, the markets adjusted the odds for tightening by year-end a little higher...

10 August 2016

Emerging Markets Boosted by Lower Rates

Scratch an investor, and you will find two models.  One is a fair value model, perhaps based on free-cash-flow or earnings expectations, or breakup value.  The other is based on liquidity.  We suspect that the latter is overwhelming the former...

6 August 2016

An Emerging Markets Status Update

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Indonesia (+4.2%), Poland (+3.9%), and Brazil (+1.9%) have outperformed this week, while Czech Republic (-5.4%), Singapore (-1.5%), and UAE (-1.3%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose...

1 August 2016

What’s Up for the Emerging Markets?

EM ended last week on a firm note, helped by the weaker than expected US Q2 GDP report as well as the small bounce in oil.  With the RBA and BOE expected to ease this week, the global liquidity backdrop...

29 July 2016

Indonesia Leads EM Headlines with a Cabinet Reshuffle

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Turkey (+4.8%), India (+1.4%), and Qatar (+1.3%) have outperformed this week, while Colombia (-6.4%), Mexico (-3.2%), and Singapore (-2.9%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.6%...

25 July 2016

Emerging Markets Wait for FOMC Meeting

EM ended the week on a soft note, as the dollar reasserted broad-based strength against most currencies. The FOMC meeting this week could see the Fed push back against the market’s dovish take on policy, in which case EM would...

25 July 2016

An Emerging Markets Status Update

The New York Times reported that the US is preparing to seize $1 bln in assets tied to 1MDB, S&P downgraded Turkey a notch to BB with a negative outlook, citing political uncertainty, Turkish President Erdogan declared a three-month state...

4 July 2016

Emerging Markets Stage Nice Recovery

EM and risk recovered nicely from the Brexit turmoil last week.  Yet we think markets are being too carried away with the "low rates forever" theme and are likely underestimating the capability of the Fed to tighten before 2018.  This...