Emerging Markets

EM ended last week on a soft note, due in large part to the attempted coup in Turkey.  Weakness in the lira spilled over into wider EM weakness in thin Friday afternoon market conditions.  The situation in Turkey has calmed,...

EM and other risk assets rallied on Friday after the strong US jobs data.  It appears that markets are pricing in a benign backdrop for risk near-term; that is, the US economy is recovering but not by enough to warrant...

EM and risk recovered nicely from the Brexit turmoil last week.  Yet we think markets are being too carried away with the "low rates forever" theme and are likely underestimating the capability of the Fed to tighten before 2018.  This...

Indonesia’s parliament approved a tax amnesty bill, Korea announced KRW20 trln ($17 bln) in fiscal stimulus, Czech President Zeman said a referendum on EU and NATO membership should be held, Russia ended its tourism ban to Turkey, Brazil’s central bank...

The Brexit vote is a game-changer for EM.  While the direct impact on EM is limited, the damage to market sentiment is undeniable.  In addition, to make matters worse, there will be a protracted period of uncertainty as the UK...

EM ended last week under pressure.  With two potentially disruptive events (FOMC meeting and Brexit vote) still in play, we think that EM softness should carry over into this week.  Markets remain jittery about the June 23 Brexit vote, as...

EM ended the week on a firm note after the US jobs shocker.  While we view the weak reading as a fluke, shifting market perceptions of Fed tightening risk should keep EM bid near-term.  However, we think the July FOMC...

In the past year, investors have seen emerging markets thrive, plunge, re-emerge and re-decline. Despite the volatile short-term story, the fundamentals of the emerging market assets remain strong. Last fall, the Wall Street Journal reported that rich nations were “losing...

In the EM equity space, China (+4.1%), Brazil (+3.0%), and Hong Kong (+1.8%) have outperformed this week, while Poland (-2.6%), Russia (-2.1%), and Qatar (-1.9%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 1.4% this week while...

The rise of non-Western emerging powers like Brazil, Russia, India and China is a reality that has shaped South Africa’s foreign policy under President Jacob Zuma. Foreign policy under Zuma has been characterised by his country’s growing closeness with these...

EM ended last week on a soft note.  The icing on the cake was Yellen’s speech Friday afternoon, which confirmed the more hawkish stance seen in the FOMC minutes and other recent official comments.  We warn that with the FOMC...

In the EM equity space, India (+5.3%), Taiwan (+4.1%), and Hong Kong (+3.6%) have outperformed this week, while Colombia (-1.5%), Qatar (-0.9%), and China (-0.5%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 2.9% this week while...

EM had another rocky week, but managed to end on a slightly firmer note Friday.  Market repricing of Fed tightening risk was the big driver last week, and that could carry over into this week.  There are several Fed speakers...

EM ended last week on a soft note, and that weakness seems likely to carry over into this week.  Dollar sentiment turned more positive after firm retail sales data on Friday, though US rates markets have yet to reflect any...

In light of the Fed’s dovish tilt in March, the global liquidity outlook turned further in favor of EM.  As a result, EM extended the bounce off the January/February lows.  There is no clear narrative as to why EM is...