Emerging Markets

EM ended the week on a firm note, which should carry over into this week.  The biggest near-term risk to EM is the US jobs data on Friday, as the weekly claims data points to another strong gain.  Otherwise, the...

EM ended last week on a soft note.  Perhaps the main driver was rising US yields, as markets become wary of a more hawkish Fed this Wednesday.  Perhaps it was technical, as the EM rally became over-extended.  Whatever the reasoning,...

China’s central bank may be leaning less dovish, Turkey has a new central bank governor, Argentina issued external debt for the first time since it defaulted 15 years ago, Brazil's lower house voted to impeach President Rousseff by a 367-137...

EM ended last week on a firm note.  Given the absence of any Fed-specific risks or any major US data releases, that firmness could carry over into this week.  The failure to reach an agreement in Doha by oil producers...

Bank Indonesia will use the 7-day reverse repo rate as its new benchmark policy rate, the ruling party in South Korea unexpectedly lost parliamentary elections, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy to recession settings, Turkey has nominated its...

Some dovish signals from the Fed and a bounce in oil prices helped EM end last week on a firm note.  This week, the US retail sales report could be important, and the same goes for CPI and PPI data...

In the EM local currency bond space, the Philippines (10-year yield -9 bp), Mexico (-5 bp), and Ukraine (-4 bp) have outperformed this week, while Peru (10-year yield +21 bp), Brazil (+18 bp), and Russia (+11 bp) have underperformed.  To...

EM ended the week on a mixed note after posting strong post-FOMC gains. The bounce in risk seems likely to continue this week, with little on the horizon to derail it. Specific country risk remains in play, however, with heightened...

In the EM equity space, China (+5.1%), South Africa (+3.8%), and Turkey (+3.6%) have outperformed this week, while Thailand (-0.7%), Qatar (-0.7%), and Colombia (-0.3%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 3.3% this week while...

Over the past three decades, global interest in emerging markets has soared, and when the financial crisis of 2008 hit, emerging markets were largely thought to be the next engine of global growth. Insofar as they have complied with this...

EM enjoyed an extended rally last week, and it should carry over to the early part of the week. The Wednesday FOMC meeting poses a risk to EM, especially if markets continue to price in a more hawkish Fed. The...

Risk sentiment ended last week on a strong note, and that should carry over into this week.  The global liquidity backdrop remains positive for EM, with the ECB widely expected to add more stimulus on Thursday.  In a similar vein,...

1) China’s central bank announced a 0.5% cut in the required reserve ratio, 2) Moody's cut the outlook on China's Aa3 rating to negative from stable, 3) Argentina and the main holdouts agreed to a debt restructuring deal, 4) Brazilian...

EM ended last week on a soft note, due to a variety of both external and internal factors.  Firm US data continue to support our call for resumed Fed tightening, and this gave the dollar a bit of a bid. ...

1) PBOC appears to have confirmed a somewhat easier monetary stance, 2) Malaysian Prime Minister Najib is consolidating his grip on power, 3) Hungarian central bank Vice Governor Nagy hinted at more rate cuts, 4) Press reports suggest South African...