Emerging Markets

EM starts the FOMC week off on a soft footing.  Besides the prospects of Fed liftoff Wednesday, oil prices are making new cycle lows.  Uncertainty about China’s FX policy is also making markets nervous, though we think this concern is...

1) South African President Jacob Zuma fired Finance Minister Nene and replaced him with little-known ANZ lawmaker David Van Rooyen; 2) S&P revised the outlook on South Africa’s BBB- rating from stable to negative; 3) People’s Bank of China announced...

The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and sterling after pushing higher yesterday.  The greenback is staging stronger upticks against the yen but is struggling to resurface above previous support in the JPY122.25 area.  Weak commodity...

EM starts the week off in the familiar position of coming under pressure.  The strong US jobs report has all but cemented a Fed lift-off this month, helping the dollar to claw back some of its post-ECB losses.  Meanwhile, commodities...

1) The Chinese yuan will be in the SDR.  2) Brazil had one of the most important weeks of the year, and possibly of its history. 3) Russia enacted sanctions against Turkey, while Turkey got a deal from the EU....

This is set to be one of the most important weeks of the year. EM is likely to take a backseat between the ECB monetary policy decision, the OPEC meeting, and the US jobs report. That said there are several...

In the EM equity space, Hungary (+2.3%), Korea (+2.0%), and Malaysia (+1.2%) have outperformed over the last week, while China (-5.8%), Turkey (-5.6%), and Poland (-3.4%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -1.8% over the...

EM starts the week on an uncertain footing. Commodity prices were off sharply until comments by Saudi Arabia lifted them, reversing the trend in commodity-sensitive assets. The dollar is also back on the rise, pressuring EM FX even as a...

1) Mexico's FX commission tweaked its intervention program slightly; 2) The political tide in Brazil has turned slightly better for the government; 3) The PBOC announced a rate cut for its Standing Lending Facility (SLF) for local financial institutions; 4)...

EM starts the week on a soft footing.  The repercussions of the attacks in Paris are still unclear, but the dollar’s rise against the majors continues and is likely to keep it bid against EM currencies as well.  Equity markets...

1) The ruling party in India, the BJP, was defeated in the Bihar state assembly elections; 2) Brazilian markets have gotten excited about the prospects of a change of the country’s Finance Minister; 3) The MSCI went through with its...

EM starts the week off on softer footing, as Friday’s jobs report supports the notion of December Fed lift-off.  USD/ZAR is making new all-time highs, and we expect most of EM to revisit the lows from August and September as...

1) The AKP won a majority in the Turkish elections; 2) Colombia’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 bps to 5.25% and added some new FX measures to its arsenal; 3) China will lift a freeze on IPOs by...

EM starts the week on a mixed footing.  Turkey is the star performer from the surprise result of the elections that ended the period of political uncertainty, but there was limited spill over to other EM markets.  Energy prices are...

EM starts the week off on a mixed footing.  On the one hand, hints of ECB stimulus and actual PBOC stimulus last week suggest a more supportive global liquidity backdrop for EM and risk.  On the other hand, they are...