Eurozone PMI Mixed while Markets are Still Waiting on Yellen
The US dollar is mostly little changed against the majors, as befits a summer session. There are two exceptions. The first is the New Zealand dollar. Comments by the central bank's governor played down the need for urgent monetary action...
The Dollar, What to Watch For, and Jackson Hole
The US dollar lost ground against nearly all the major currencies last week. The sole exceptions were the Australian dollar, where pressure ahead of the weekend following Moody's decision to cut the outlook for five Australian banks wiped out the previous...
After a Rough Week, the Dollar Finds a Footing
The US dollar is trading firmly ahead of the weekend as part of this week's losses are recouped. The gains are sufficient to put it higher for the week against the Australian dollar. If its gains against the Aussie were...
Maybe Wage Inflation is the Answer?
All that is solid is melting. After Copernicus, we know that earth is not the center of Creation. Darwin showed us that humans are part of the animal kingdom. Freud told us we are not even masters of our own...
Fed President Dudley Upbeat on H2 U.S. Growth
The US dollar is enjoying a mid-week bounce against all the major currencies. It appears that participants in Asia and Europe are giving more credence to NY Fed Dudley's comments yesterday. Although many in the market have given up on...
Are Shifting Views on Fed Policy Moving the Dollar?
The US dollar is being sold across the board today. The US Dollar Index is off 0.65% late in the European morning, which, if sustained, would make it the largest drop in two weeks. The proximate cause being cited by...
So Much to Watch with Only Two Eyes
Japan's Q2 GDP: The week begins off with the first estimate of Japan's Q2 GDP. Growth is expected to slow from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.2%-0.3% in Q2. Consumption likely slowed more than investment increased. The GDP deflator, another measure of...
Economic Data may not Help the Dollar
The dollar's push lower that we anticipate until later in the month gained momentum following the disappointing US retail sales report before the weekend. The dollar's technical tone has deteriorated, while the economic data is unlikely to be sufficient to...
Africa’s Largest Economy is South Africa’s, but other Measures Matter More
South Africa has toppled Nigeria and reclaimed its status as the largest economy in Africa. This comes two years after Nigeria rebased its GDP calculation and advanced to the top spot. South Africa was also temporarily relegated to the third position...
Retail Sales, Japanese Nuclear Power and Spanish Politics for Your Weekend
There is a general consolidative tone in the capital markets as the week draws to a close. The US retail sales report may offer a brief distraction, but it is unlikely to significantly shift expectations about the trajectory of Fed...
Relatively Quiet Markets (for Some) Should Liven Up this Fall
US LIBOR continues to rise. LIBOR may not be what it was before the Great Financial Crisis, or before the scandalous revelations. However, it remains an important benchmark. Three-month LIBOR rose from around 25 bp before last December's Fed hike...
Nothing New to Change the Lower Rates for Longer Theme
The robust US jobs report at the end of last week had arrested the down draft seen the previous week in response to the disappointing Q2 GDP report. The mostly sideways movement has given way to a broader pullback today. ...
A Heavy Pound
In an otherwise uneventful foreign exchange market, sterling's slide for its fifth consecutive session is the highlight. It was pushed below $1.30 for the first time since July 12. Initial resistance for the North American session is seen near $1.3020,...
Pre-weekend Equity Rally Shows Increased Risk Appetite
Investors favor risk assets today. Global stocks are moving higher in the wake of the pre-weekend US rally that saw the S&P 500 close at record levels. Bond yields are mostly firmer, again with US move in response to the...
The Macroeconomic Picture Comes to the Fore
The drip-feed of high frequency economic data from the major economies slows in the week ahead. The data that is reported is unlikely to have much impact on the expectations of policy going forward. The state of play is fairly...