Economics

13 September 2016

China’s Latest Attempt to Clear the Air

The picture of Presidents Xi and Obama, beaming as they shake hands after jointly announcing their ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement on the eve of the G20 summit, is even more striking when one considers just how far apart...

13 September 2016

Is the IMF International Enough?

The global financial crisis raised critical questions about how international policy frameworks monitor, regulate and manage global liquidity. Liquidity is a public good and the international financial system is immediately affected by its excessive volatility. The G20 has been struggling...

13 September 2016

Is there Room to Raise Rates?

Our approach to Fed-watching is clear:  Among the cacophony of voices, the Troika of Fed leadership, Yellen, Fischer and Dudley provide the clearest signal. They are most often on message, and their comments have been the best indications of policy.  ...

12 September 2016

When Governor Brainard Talks, People Listen

Stocks and bonds have begun the new week much like last week ended.  Sharp losses are being recorded.  The US dollar is mixed, with minor losses against the euro, yen, and sterling, but a firmer tone is evident against the...

9 September 2016

Europe (German Data) Sets a Heavy Tone

The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out.  On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed.  Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly...

9 September 2016

Emerging Economies Belated G20 Voice

In Hangzhou, China began the push for G20 to overcome protectionism and fuel global growth prospects. That is vital to reverse stagnation in advanced economies and slowdown in emerging nations. On September 4-5, the leaders of the G20 economies met...

8 September 2016

ECB Rate Policy Unchanged, but Growth Forecast is Shaved

The shaving of 2017 and 2018 growth forecasts, recognition of continued downside risks did not prompt the ECB to adjust monetary policy.  Rates were left unchanged, as widely expected.  The ECB also refrained from extending the asset purchases.  This is...

8 September 2016

Making vs. Keeping G20 Globalization Gains

The G20 summit of world leaders just finished two days of meetings, during which they focused primarily on the many ongoing fires threatening the global economy. These include the alleged “dumping” of Chinese steel on other nations, worsening climate change, cybersecurity and...

7 September 2016

Are Quality Jobs being Created?

The pessimists have claimed that the US is generating low paying jobs. Nearly every monthly jobs report is followed by what seems to be a canned retort.  The media picks up on the story and continues to regenerate it.  Earlier...

7 September 2016

Investor Response to Rate Change Prospects has been Uneven

Disappointing industrial output figures from Germany and UK are helping stabilize the US dollar after yesterday's shellacking.  Investors have been fickle about the prospects for a rate hike this month, and the unexpected dramatic slide in the service spurred a...

6 September 2016

Hollowing Out of ASEAN is the Latest Risk

Vientiane will host the 28th ASEAN Summit this week, with the summit documents rotating around the same themes that ASEAN has been promoting for decades: unity and centrality. The worry, both at the upcoming summit and beyond, is that there...

6 September 2016

BRICS Governance through the G20

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) have existed as a coherent economic group since 2009. They represent approximately 40 percent of the world population, generate approximately 20 percent of world output, have accounted for 50 percent of global...

6 September 2016

Another Round of Central Bank Meetings begins Down Under

The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the major and emerging market currencies. However, the losses are modest, and the greenback remains within recent ranges.  The Antipodean and Scandi bloc currencies are performing best.  The US dollar is...