Economics

30 August 2016

Another Shot at Global Governance Reform

At the end of the twentieth century, China was an observer of global governance, on the sidelines of the G7 and not yet a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Encouraged by Western countries to embrace global governance, China...

30 August 2016

China in the G20 Spotlight

The G20 has become the key vehicle for implementing and promoting global economic governance. China is set to host this year’s G20 summit in Hangzhou on 4–5 September. What can we expect from the G20 under China’s leadership? The G20...

30 August 2016

Odds of a September Rate Hike Move Higher

The US dollar is trading firmly, largely within yesterday's ranges.  The odds implied by the September Fed fund futures eased to 36% from 42% before the weekend, but ahead of Fischer's Bloomberg TV appearance, and tomorrow's ADP employment estimate, the...

29 August 2016

Can Africa Benefit from a Greater G20 Role?

As China assumes leadership in the grouping, Beijing a wants greater role for Africa and the developing world in the G20. When China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke in the Hangzhou Summit in May, he made it clear that Beijing...

29 August 2016

How will the G20 Work in a Multi-polar World?

More than seven decades after 1945, international multilateral organizations continue to represent the victors of World War II, not the economic powerhouses of the 21st century. However, change is in the air. More than seven decades after 1945, international multilateral...

29 August 2016

Wages, albeit the Lowest, Appear to be on the Rise

This Great Graphic comes from the Wall Street Journal.  It shows what is happening to the pay of the least compensated in the US.  Their pay is going up at a pace that is exceeding the averages and inflation. The...

29 August 2016

The Divergent Monetary Policy Theme is Back

The US dollar staged a strong pre-weekend rally on hints that the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year.  There was initially follow through dollar buying in Asia before a more stable tone emerged in Europe, where...

29 August 2016

Yellen is Part of a Larger Equation

With 17 simple words and the help of clarification from her deputy, Yellen changed the near-term dynamics in the capital markets.  By saying that "...I believe that case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent...

29 August 2016

Summer goes On, but not the Market Doldrums

The US dollar had spent the last full week of August mostly confined to narrow trading ranges against the major currencies until the Yellen spoke as at the end of the week.  She confirmed the constructive assessment of the economy...

26 August 2016

Inequality Creeps into the Land of the Fair Go

There is growing evidence that inequality is increasing not only in Australia but also internationally within the advanced industrial economies. The age of endless growth in prosperity for everyone is a distant memory of a more hopeful age. There is growing evidence that inequality is increasing...

26 August 2016

Separating Politics from International Law

Analyses of state responses to the South China Sea arbitral award often frame the issue as a binary choice between a rules-based or power-based approach to international relations. However, states are unlikely to view the matter this way, because international...

26 August 2016

Japan’s Myanmar Bet Payoff

After over 20 years of sanctions and international pariah status, Myanmar has begun to come in from the cold. It has taken the 2010 elections, a new ‘civilian’ president and the by-elections of early 2012 to convince the international community...

26 August 2016

Playing the Central Bank Odds

Yellen's presentation at Jackson Hole today is the highlight of the week.  It also marks the end of the summer for many North American and European investors.  It may be a bit of a rolling start for US participants, until...

25 August 2016

Can Britain use the ‘Norway Option’ with the EU?

  The aftermath of the Brexit referendum has intensified the debate on alternative templates for the UK’s relationship with the European Union. The “Norway option”, an arrangement that allows Norway access to the single market without being a member of...

25 August 2016

Is ASEAN Sinking in the South China Sea?

The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) judgement on the South China Sea ruled that there is no legal basis for Chinese ‘historical rights’ within its claimed nine-dash line. China did not accept the judgement and has instead continued its maritime...