Economics

Disappointing industrial output figures from Germany and UK are helping stabilize the US dollar after yesterday's shellacking.  Investors have been fickle about the prospects for a rate hike this month, and the unexpected dramatic slide in the service spurred a...

Vientiane will host the 28th ASEAN Summit this week, with the summit documents rotating around the same themes that ASEAN has been promoting for decades: unity and centrality. The worry, both at the upcoming summit and beyond, is that there...

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) have existed as a coherent economic group since 2009. They represent approximately 40 percent of the world population, generate approximately 20 percent of world output, have accounted for 50 percent of global...

The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the major and emerging market currencies. However, the losses are modest, and the greenback remains within recent ranges.  The Antipodean and Scandi bloc currencies are performing best.  The US dollar is...

Several developments took place while US markets were closed for its Labor Day holiday.  Most of the economic news was favorable.  This included a strong snap back in the UK service PMI,  more evidence that the moral suasion campaign to...

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong paid an official visit to the United States at the invitation of outgoing US President Barack Obama from 31 July to 5 August 2016. Apart from the symbolic significance of the trip — which...

The last two weeks have been about the US.  First, it was Jackson Hole. The leadership of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, Dudley and Fischer sang from the same songbook. They all signaled that the time was approaching to take another...

The US dollar showed an unexpected resiliency to the disappointing August employment data.  The dollar's resilience in the face of the jobs data may reflect that many see the report did not alter investors' or policymakers' information set.  It did not...

  On Labor Day, politicians have traditionally paid lip service to the plight of the worker, whom the national holiday is meant to honor. With working-class struggles taking center stage in this year’s election, we will likely hear from them...

  It seems that the world has become unsafe for trade agreements. In particular, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a major new trade deal among the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations, has become a political lightning rod for both the...

The US grew 151k jobs last month and when coupled with the 20k upward revision to the July figure the net job creation is not far from the 170k-180k median expectation.  However, the details were more disappointing.  Average hourly earnings...

The US dollar is little changed ahead of the job report.  Our near-term bias is for a lower dollar.   Sterling is flat and is holding on to about a 1% gain this week.  The Japanese yen is about a 0.3%...

Globalisation has contributed to the growth of China for decades but the rise of protectionism in Western economies could curb Chinese trade and investment. Globalisation has contributed to the growth of China for decades but the rise of protectionism in...

Hugh White’s views on the dangers of the United States moving to a ‘No First Use’ nuclear posture are inherently unpersuasive. The virtues of a ‘No First Use’ policy have been crisply spelled out by Ramesh Thakur, for instance, in...

As China assumes G20 leadership, the prospect of global “protectionism” is on the rise and the stakes could not be higher for cooperation and major structural reforms. Without continued investment and trade, secular stagnation in advanced economies and growth deceleration...