Greek Election Fallout and European Asset Values
The failure of Greek Prime Minister Samaras to secure sufficient votes in the third and final parliamentary attempt to select a new president has sparked a sell-off in European stocks and peripheral bonds. Up until now, the contagion from Greece...
Expectations Met by ECB Inaction
The ECB has not announced any new initiative. It stands ready to do more next year, but there was no specific mention of sovereign bond purchases. There was no tweaking of the second TLTRO which will launched next week. ...
Key EU Members’ View of the European Economic Crisis
Europe's economic crisis is slowly but steadily eroding the political systems of many countries on the Continent. New actors are emerging and threatening the supremacy of the traditional players. Alliances and events that seemed impossible only a few years ago...
Expanding the ECB Balance Sheet Will Take Time
EC President Juncker is set to unveil a new investment program. It sounds good: a fiscal complement to the monetary policy stance of the ECB. Expectations are running high that the ECB will move to more aggressively expand its balance...
Draghi Operating a Divided ECB
Three companions enjoyed a midday meal. The first says, “I’m satiated. The food and drink have done the trick. I'm ready to return to work." The second says he still has room for a dessert to top off the wonderful...
The Bad Economic Hits Keep Coming in Europe
The US dollar is trading broadly higher as the divergence thesis gains ground with the latest batch of disappointing euro area data. Soft UK BRC sales and price indices suggest that Britain is being pulled closer to the euro area...
Draghi’s Comments End Up Rather Anti-Climactic
This seems to be the first time in several months that ECB President Draghi has been rather anti-climactic. The disappointment or the "sell the rumor buy the fact" scenario we suggested is, in fact, unfolding, and the euro is...
The ECB and its Options for Promoting Eurozone Growth
The European Central Bank meets tomorrow. The focus is on the details of the asset-backed securities and covered bond plan that was announced last month. There are three key issues related to this new initiative: What instruments will be purchased,...
Growth Flatlines in Euro Zone Following Unexpected Contraction in German Economy
The euro zone economy stagnated in Q2, as the rest of the region offset the unexpected 0.2% contraction in the German economy. The implied yield of the German bund future dipped below 1.0%, though the yield in the cash market...
Eastern Europe’s Shattered Shale Dreams
Shale projects in Eastern Europe are being challenged by delaying tactics of industry majors. Media coverage of shale gas development is positive; but in Lithuania and Poland, global oil & gas companies are one by one dropping bids to...
The Erosion Of Foreign Investment In Europe
As advanced economies struggle with their debt crises, the typical drivers of growth – consumption, government, net exports – are ailing in many countries, particularly in Europe. As a result, many nations hope to rejuvenate their economies through investment. Last...
Will Europe’s Austerity Lead To Another Great Depression?: Dan Steinbock
Until recently, Brussels has supported primarily frontload austerity measures. When President Hoover tried similar policies in 1930s America, a severe recession morphed into a devastating Great Depression. Is Europe following in the footprints? On Monday (11 March), the President of...
Will Europe’s Unemployment Crisis Spark A Return For Fascism? : George Friedman
Fascism had its roots in Europe, during the 1920s and 1930s, in massive economic failures in which the financial elites failed to recognize the political consequences of unemployment. While history may not repeat itself so neatly, the emergence of new...
Europe’s Austerity ‘Cure’ Will Never Work: Joseph Stiglitz
While Europe’s leaders shy away from the word, the reality is that much of the European Union is in depression. Indeed, it will now take a decade or more to recover from the losses incurred by misguided austerity policies –...
Could Europe’s Social Crisis Overshadow Its Economic Woes In 2013?: George Friedman
For close to three years, the primary focus of European leaders has been to solve the region’s banking and sovereign debt crisis, which have caused a serious weakening of the economy and created massive unemployment in some countries. The same...