Marc Chandler


Marc Chandler

About the author:

Head of Global Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Stories by the author

Remember September (for Jobs Data)


Let's admit that the monthly non-farm payroll report is among the most difficult for economists to forecast.  There are not many reliable inputs as it is the first piece of real sector data for a new month. 

Nevertheless, it is an important piece of economic data, and which, as we saw earlier in the year, a significant downside miss could freeze the Fed.  

It's an Italian Thing


Italian Prime Minister has set the date for the constitutional referendum as late as practically possibly.  It will be held on December 4.  The issue is the perfect bicameralism that gives as much power to the Senate as the Chamber of Deputies. 

What's Up in Emerging Markets


EM initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend.  One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria.  However, it wasn’t just EM, as the greenback closed firmer against the majors as well.  We still believe that risk and EM should do fine over the next few weeks, as the Fed set a two-month window of steady rates.

A Random Pattern


As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged.  If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged.