Economics

17 December 2014

The U.S. FOMC Statement is on Many Minds

The US dollar's recovery that began yesterday continues today.  The euro reached the 50% retracement objective of its slide since mid-October (~$1.2565) and now is more than a full cent lower.  The dollar's slump against the yen ended just above...

16 December 2014

U.S. Industrial Production Surges amid Cheap Energy

Industrial production surged to its highest level since 2010 in November after three solid months of gains.  Industrial production rose 5.2% year-over-year in November and manufacturing rose 4.8% year-over-year, signaling continued confidence in the economy from the industrial sector. Industrial...

15 December 2014

Will the Lima Conference Break the Climate Change Stalemate?

For quarter of a century, global climate change talks have suffered from a stalemate between major advanced nations and large emerging economies. Since Lima’s climate conference could not resolve it, it deferred the divide to Paris 2015.Recently, world’s leading nations...

15 December 2014

Key Global Economic News Help the Dollar and U.S. Equities

As the 24-hour session has progressed, the US dollar and equities have stabilized and turned higher.  Indeed as US traders prepare to return, stocks and the dollars are trading near session highs.  Oil prices are also trading higher.  Core bonds...

12 December 2014

Global Challenges are Mounting as Oil Continues to Slip

The US dollar is trading within yesterday's ranges against the major currencies. The Canadian dollar is the main exception. It is pushing lower still, with the greenback pushing a little beyond CAD1.1550. The main development today is the continued drop...

11 December 2014

Notes on the Second ECB TLTRO Participation

Today we learn of the participation of the second opportunity to borrow funds from the ECB under the Targeted Long-Term Repo facility.  Recall that this year's access was limited to 7% of a bank's loan book (loans to households and...

11 December 2014

Market Participants Attempt to Smooth Big Moves

The markets have been subject to large moves in recent days.  Some, including the dollar, were counter-trend moves.  Some, like oil, were accelerations of the existing trends.  There have been a number of surprise developments today, including the less dovish...

8 December 2014

A Very Short Campaign in Japan is Underway

As the official election campaign rolled out last week, the media are still trying to get a handle on what the upcoming Japanese election is all about. This is ‘the election Japan didn’t need to have’ or the election ‘that’s...

8 December 2014

Abe’s Calculated Move to Stretch a Political Career

The incumbent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seems to be cruising towards a victory in the snap election to be held on 14 December. But beware of interpreting this as a ringing endorsement of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Instead, the likely...

8 December 2014

America Leads World in Job Growth

The United States added 321,000 jobs in November as job growth continued to accelerate, marking 2014 as the best year for jobs since 1999.The United States added over 2.5 million jobs in 2014, while a number of secondary indicators point...

6 December 2014

Complicated Geopolitics Challenge an Asian FTA

The fifth round of the China–Japan–South Korea Free Trade Agreement (CJK FTA) negotiations concluded in Beijing on 5 September. The three countries hope the negotiations will finish in 2015, but this partly depends on the progress of the Trans-Pacific Partnership...

5 December 2014

A Backstory on the U.S. Jobs Report

If there was one report to count on to shake up markets, it was the monthly US jobs report.  Part of the issue was that of all the economic data that the US reports, economists had the greatest difficulty in...