Marc Chandler

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Marc Chandler
About the author:

Head of Global Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Remember September (for Jobs Data)

Date: 30 September 2016

Let's admit that the monthly non-farm payroll report is among the most difficult for economists to forecast.  There are not many reliable inputs as it is the first piece of real sector data for a new month. Nevertheless, it is an important piece of economic data, and which, as we saw earlier in the year, a significant downside miss could freeze the Fed.

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Employer Insurance Premium Growth - Still a Problem

Date: 29 September 2016

Upward pressure on US consumer prices is stemming from two elements.  Rents and medical services.   Due to the differences in the composition of the basket of goods and services that are used, the core personal consumption deflator, which the Fed targets, typically lags behind core CPI.

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Without Monetary Policy Insight, Dollar Runs in Place

Date: 28 September 2016

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week.  It is within well-worn ranges.  Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments.

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It's an Italian Thing

Date: 28 September 2016

Italian Prime Minister has set the date for the constitutional referendum as late as practically possibly.  It will be held on December 4.  The issue is the perfect bicameralism that gives as much power to the Senate as the Chamber of Deputies.

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The Peso, but Probably not Voters, Moved by the Debate

Date: 27 September 2016

The first US Presidential debate may not sway many voters but has lifted the Mexican peso.  The peso, which has fallen by about 1.3% over the past two sessions, has stormed by 1.5% today as the seemingly biggest winner of the debate. Snap polls immediately following the debate gave the edge to Clinton.

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Idiosyncratic Risk and Dollar Movement

Date: 26 September 2016

The US dollar is narrowly mixed.  The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer.  The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic, country-level developments.

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What's Up in Emerging Markets

Date: 26 September 2016

EM initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend.  One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria.  However, it wasn’t just EM, as the greenback closed firmer against the majors as well.  We still believe that risk and EM should do fine over the next few weeks, as the Fed set a two-month window of steady rates.

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Global Political Developments Take Center Stage

Date: 26 September 2016

The major central banks have placed down their markers and have moved to stage left.  There are the late-month high frequency data, which pose some headline risks in the week ahead.  The focus for most investors will be on several political developments.

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A Random Pattern

Date: 23 September 2016

As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged.  If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged.

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See You in December

Date: 22 September 2016

The US dollar has lost another 0.5% against most of the major currencies today, as Asia and Europe respond to the Fed's decision.  There are few exceptions to this generalization.  The Norwegian krone has gained nearly three times as much, with the help of its central bank, which has played down for lower rates at today's meeting.  The euro is at its lowest level against Nokkie since the end of last year.

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Maybe there is another Way to Weaken the Yen

Date: 21 September 2016

Much of what the Bank of Japan announced today had been largely leaked.  While there was a sizeable response in the asset markets, the dollar's knee-jerk gains against the yen were quickly unwound. The BOJ lifted its self-imposed restrictions on its asset purchases and shifted the focus of policy from the monetary base to the yield curve. It is not clear that this shift increases the chances of the BOJ reaching its inflation target.

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The BOJ Unknown and the FOMC Sort of Known

Date: 20 September 2016

Tomorrow's Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings are serving to dampen activity in the foreign exchange market.  The US dollar is little changed against the euro, yen, and sterling.  The Antipodeans are firm.

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Merkel's Support Fades, as does the Dollar's

Date: 19 September 2016

The US dollar, which finished last week on a firm note, is under pressure to start the new week that features Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings.  The slighter stronger August CPI reading helped lift the greenback ahead of the weekend, but investors continue to see a low probability of a Fed hike this week.

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Technically Speaking: Currencies and the Days of the Week

Date: 19 September 2016

The US dollar rose against the major currencies except the Japanese yen last week.  It also appreciated against most of the emerging market currencies, with the South African rand, the Brazil real, and the Chinese yuan the notable exceptions.

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