Investing

Every so often, a market move appears inexplicable.  The conundrum now is the yen's strength.  Of course, there are numerous attempts shed light on the yen's rise, but many, like ourselves, are not very satisfied.  Perhaps part of the problem...

There are three highlights to the foreign exchange market today.  First, the yen is marginally softer.  The yen's strength this month has been the main development.  After making a marginal new high yesterday, some semblance of stability emerged in North...

The yen's surge may be easing.  It made a new marginal high in Asia, but it was unsustainable.  Technically, a hammer candlestick pattern may be traced out by the greenback's recovery today.  Supporting the greenback is the movement in interest...

In an unusual development, sterling is outperforming today.  It rose to a four-day high near $1.4230 on what appears to be mostly modest position adjustment in relatively subdued turnover.  The $1.40 area held on repeated tests in the second half...

Speculators in the futures market were not particularly active in Commitment of Traders reporting week ending April 5.  There was only one gross position adjustment which we regard as significant (defined as a 10k contract change), and that was in...

The yen's surge in recent days has captured the attention of investors and policymakers alike.  It is indeed unsettling and seems to run counter to the economic logic negative interest rates, which the BOJ surprised the market with at the...

The main feature in the foreign exchange market continues to be the surge of the Japanese yen.  A convincing explanation of the yen's strength seems elusive.  Until last week, which means through the fiscal year-end last month, Japanese fund managers...

The old head and shoulders pattern in the dollar against the yen is back in vogue.  We first pointed it out the first week in January here. Recall the details.  The neckline is drawn around JPY116.30 and measuring objective is...

The US dollar is better bid today but remains largely in the ranges seen in recent days.  There a few developments to note, which together are lifting European equities after Asian equities softened.  First, the API oil inventory estimate showed...

Conspiracy theories have run amok.  After several years of claiming countries were engaged in currency wars or attempts to drive their currencies down to achieve export advantage, many reporters and analysts announced a volte-face.  At the late February G20 meeting...

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the CRB Index, a basket of commodity prices.  The technical picture has deteriorated, and the price action in the coming sessions is particularly important in determining outlook.  This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg,...

The most extreme speculative positioning, judging from the futures market is the long yen position.  The bulls added another 3.4k contracts, lifting the gross long position to 82.8k contracts.  The record was set in 2008 at 94.7k contracts.  The gross...

The US dollar rose against all the major and most emerging market currencies last week. After selling off following the ECB and FOMC meetings, the dollar found better traction.  It was helped by widening interest rate differentials.  Regional Fed manufacturing...

We have been looking for a bottom in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.  It is been difficult, but now it appears that the technicals are turning.  This Great Graphic, from Bloomberg, shows that the US dollar is moving...

Helicopter money is the rage.  Central banks are talking about it.  Economists are debating it.  The media is rife with coverage.  While it sounds important, it is not precisely clear what helicopter money means.  Helicopter money is the rage.  Central...