Investing

Helicopter money is the rage.  Central banks are talking about it.  Economists are debating it.  The media is rife with coverage.  While it sounds important, it is not precisely clear what helicopter money means.  Helicopter money is the rage.  Central...

The UK referendum is three months away.  Three-month options are a common benchmark for various market segments from speculators, to fund managers to corporations.  Events over the past week have raised the risks that the UK votes to leave the...

Until last September, the Federal Reserve seemed to play down the market-based measures of inflation expectations, preferring the surveys that showed views were anchored.  At the September 2015 FOMC meeting where the Fed had been expected to tighten until the...

After a relatively quiet period into the run-up to the ECB, speculative activity markedly increased in the CFTC reporting week ending the day prior to the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. After a relatively quiet period into the run-up to...

In our work, we have argued that the dollar is having its third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods.  The first rally was associated with Reagan though it began under Carter and followed 100 bp hike by a...

The cry that the dollar has peaked is gaining ground.  We are not convinced.  The macro-fundamental case remains intact.  Divergence between the US and other high-income countries continues, even if at a more gradual pace than the Federal Reserve expected...

The Commitment of Traders reporting period ending March 8 showed little position adjusting ahead of the ECB meeting two days later.  A little more than 3/4 of the gross positions we track saw less than 5k contract change and only...

The reversal of the US dollar's gains half way through Draghi's press conference has undermined the near-term technical tone.  The risk is on the downside, at least in the first part of the week, ahead of the FOMC meeting.  The...

The Canadian dollar's advance continues.  Neither the widening of interest rate differentials in the US favor nor a poor employment report has managed to buckle the Loonie. Oil and the general risk-on mood trump the other concerns. In addition, investors...

The Canadian dollar appears vulnerable.  It remains firm while the US two-year premium over Canada has risen sharply.   Like others, we do not expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates today and are looking past it.  This Great Graphic...

We argue that the dollar is in its third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971.  The Reagan dollar rally was driven by the policy mix of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy.  The G7 effort...

Over the last decade, we have seen several instances where most market investors have been caught off-guard and surprised by new developments.  Most notably, the stock market events of 2008-2009 were some of the most significant in recent memory --...

The US dollar fell against all of the major and most of the emerging market currencies last week.  Risk appetites have been rekindled, and the yen has gone from the best performer in recent weeks to the worst over the...

Over the next fortnight the major central banks, including the ECB, BOJ, Fed and BOE will hold policy-making meetings.  Of the four, expectations are the highest for the ECB to ease policy. Over the next fortnight the major central banks,...

Charitable organisations by definition aim to do good with the money they receive and spend. However, what about the investments they make? What if these investments don’t appear to match the aims that the organisation promotes? For example, a charity...