Investing

During a period in which the zero bound no longer is the floor of interest rates, and many central banks continue to ease policy, we have been watching gold a bit closer.  In early January, we noted that the technical...

The position adjustment among speculators in the currency futures market was minor in the reporting week that ended February 23.  We regarded only one gross adjustment as significant (more than 10k contracts).  The Mexican officials sprung a bear trap and...

As systemic anxiety eased, the US dollar got better traction. The dollar-bloc currencies managed to hold their own as cross positions were unwound.   Major bourses posted gains for the second consecutive week.  With the recent advance, several markets, including the...

The internecine pitch battle between ECB President Draghi and the man who may very well be his successor, Bundesbank President Weidmann opened a new front this week.  It is over the future of the 500-euro note.  The internecine pitch battle...

The foreign exchange market is unusually calm.  The US dollar is little changed against currencies.  While the selling pressure that took sterling below $1.39 and the euro below $1.10 has subsided, neither has been able sustain upticks.  The euro rose...

When considering the impact of changing currency prices on an economy, trade-weighted measures are appropriate.  The Federal Reserve has cited the dollar's appreciation as a headwind on the economy and a depressant on prices. When considering the impact of changing...

The US dollar has begun the week with a strong advance against sterling and the euro. Sterling's drop, the most in several years, is not a function of macroeconomic policy.  It is a function of Brexit and its endorsement by...

The CFTC Commitment of Traders reporting week ending February 16 was short due to the US holiday.  This may have contributed to the small adjustments to speculative positioning in the currency futures.  It also may reflect the lack of conviction...

Those looking to trade in any of the financial markets will obviously need to have a firm understanding of the basics involved in their chosen asset class.  However, what is likely less obvious is the fact that traders in one...

John Cryan, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank, has described his bank as “rock solid”. This may be what you would expect to hear from the executive with his hand on the tiller – but it is a bit like...

There are two broad developments in speculative positioning in the Commitment of Traders report in the week ending February 9.  First, the market turbulence saw speculators reduce exposure.  Of the 16 gross positions we track, 11 were reducing positions by...

The conundrum that everyone is wrestling with is the euro and yen's strength given their negative interest rates and prospect for even lower interest rates.  The divergence of monetary policy, even if the Fed is on hold for the rest...

When we look at many of the financial media headlines over the last year, we have seen a good deal of attention focusing on the declining valuation in the Euro.  However, when we take a closer at specific valuations in...

In the first quarter of 2014, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) finally succeeded in breaking persistent renminbi (RMB) appreciation expectations. Unfortunately, the subsequent RMB depreciation coincided with the weakening of China’s economic fundamentals. As a result, instead of creating...

The latest Commitment of Traders report covers the week ending February 2 that included the FOMC meeting and the BOJ's surprise cut.  There was also speculation of a potential deal between Russia and OPEC to cut output.  Speculative position adjustment...