Are We Still Watching the January Effect?
So far, it has not been a happy new year for equity market investors. The Australian equity market lost A$100 billion in market value in the first week of trading, mirroring a dire global trend. If we are to believe...
Dollar-Yen Relationship Quirks
Since the initial spike higher when the BOJ provided some operational tweaks to its asset purchase program on December 18, the dollar has fallen 5.6% against the yen through Tuesday's low near JPY116.70. We had warned that the break of...
The BOE Meets This Week, but Likely Won’t Help the Pound
A subdued Chinese session, with the yuan, little changed and local equities securing minor gains, let market participants look elsewhere for directional cues. The new lows in oil, near $30 a barrel, and the bankruptcy filing of Glencore's US subsidiary...
When Currency Manipulation is not the Answer
The broad measures of the US dollar are trending higher, and former Fed Chair Bernanke recently refuted claims the US was engaged in a currency war. Many observers had thought that with its unprecedented asset-purchase program, the BOJ was engaged...
Speculators Surprisingly Add Exposure
Due to the holidays, the CFTC has been releasing its Commitment of Traders report late. With this week's report, the normal Friday release schedule resumes. The latest report covers the shortened week through January 5. It is not surprising to...
Yeah, I’m the (Bitcoin) Taxman
Bitcoin enthusiasts have recently been roiled by claims that an Australian named Craig Wright and his deceased partner are the mysterious founders behind the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin enthusiasts have recently been roiled by claims that an Australian named Craig Wright and...
Could Gold be Forming a Bottom?
With equity markets tumbling, escalating tensions between a Saudi-led Sunni bloc against Iran, ongoing hostilities in Syria, North Korea testing what it claims to be a hydrogen bomb, the once precious yellow metal is looking perky. Gold recorded a six-year...
The Yen Flexes Some Muscle
Last year was the fourth consecutive year that the yen fell against the dollar. However, obscured by this factoid is that over the past six months, the yen has been the strongest of the major currencies, rising almost 3.2% against...
Latin America Investing in 2016
Latin America has quickly become the new go-to spot for investors, with even the country of China having pledged a sum of $250 billion within the next ten years. Latin America has quickly become the new go-to spot for investors,...
Nudging China Toward Greater Financial Liberalization through the SDR
The IMF decided on 30 November 2015 to include China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), in the elite basket of reserve currencies that determine the unit value of Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The IMF uses the SDR to supplement member states’...
The Dollar Wins over the Euro and Yen
The US dollar will finish 2015 higher against both the euro and yen. Sometimes those of us who follow the economic and financial news closely can be caught up with the short-term fluctuations. As traders, that is what we do. ...
The Renminbi-Dollar Complex
As China’s renminbi has been included in the IMF elite currencies and the Fed has started its rate hikes, conventional wisdom sees the RMB weakening and US dollar strengthening as simple long-term trends. The realities are far more complex, however....
Halfway to the (First) Holiday
The thinness of the order-driven capital markets is making price action that seems more inexplicable than usual. The US dollar is mixed. It has recouped all the ground it lows against the euro yesterday, as the single currency briefly dipped...
Futures Activity Predictably Higher Pre-FOMC
Speculative position adjustments in the currency futures were minimal in the immediate aftermath of the ECB's December 3 meeting and US employment data the following day. However, activity dramatically increased in the days ahead of the FOMC meeting on December...
Green Bonds Still in Too Few Hands
The climate summit in Paris has shown that global big business is now also on board with the transition to a low-carbon economy. However, the most promising instruments in finance for promoting green investing, particularly green bonds, have been around...