Technically Speaking: Could We See a Shaky Dollar?
The US dollar recovered from the sell-off sparked by the poor employment data released on June 3. It continued to move higher after the Federal Reserve met and shaved its forecasts for the next year and 2018. The number of...
Is Singling Out the Yuan as Manipulated Fair?
We have a lot of power with China. We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country, and that’s what they’re doing. – Donald Trump, May 1, Fort Wayne, Indiana We have a lot of power with China. We can’t...
U.S. Treasury Department Lays Down the Currency Law
For over a quarter-century now, the US Treasury Department has released a formulaic report on the currency policy and practices of key economies on a semi-annual basis. On occasion, it has hauled up a trading partner as a ‘currency manipulator’...
CFTC: Gross Futures Positions Show Significant Shifts
In the first week of June, which featured both the largely uneventful ECB meeting, and the surprisingly weak US jobs data through the first couple sessions this week saw speculators make several significant adjustments to their positions. Overall, the adjustment...
Is Gold Back?
It wasn't so long ago that some of the more famous investor gurus were shrugging off gold as nothing more than shiny trinkets with no investment value. They were wrong. This safe haven is back, the recovery is clear, and...
Collateral Currency Damage from Poorly Timed Rate Hikes
Renewed allegations of “currency manipulation” in the US-China bilateral agenda have less to do with the Chinese renminbi than US election politics and the Fed’s anticipated rate hikes. Even before the start of the eighth and final Strategic and Economic...
Intervention or Valuation Change?
News that Switzerland's reserves rose to a new record high of CHF602.1 bln in May from CHF587.9 bln in April spurred talk that the SNB has been intervening covertly. One media account cited one trader that terms the intervention as...
Speculators are Ho-Hum Prior to Key Events
Even recognizing a holiday-short week, speculative position adjustments were minor in the days before the ECB meeting and the US jobs report. There were no gross position adjustments that met the 10k contract threshold. The largest gross position adjustment was...
Data, So Far Mixed, Confuses the Currency Picture
The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias to start the month of June. Weaker stocks and firmer bonds has seen the yen rise the most, while sterling's losses have been extended after an ICM telephone survey showed a...
Options Market Stressing over a Brexit
Many market participants began talking as if it were nearly a done deal that the UK will vote to stay in the EU. It is as if Winston Churchill's witticism that Americans can be counted on to do the right...
CFTC: Where did the Aussie Dollar and Yen Longs Go?
There were only two significant speculative position adjustments in the latest CFTC reporting week ending May 24. Speculators liquidated 31.4k gross long yen contracts, leaving the bulls with 54.8k contracts. It is the largest weekly adjustment since last September. Speculators...
Finding the True Measure of Gold
Many investors still think about gold as if it were money. Economists identify three functions of money: store of value, means of exchange, and a unit of account. It can be a store of value, but the price fluctuates compared...
So Much for a Market Forces-Based Yuan Exchange Rate
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that minutes of a meeting in China two months ago reveal that officials there have abandoned their commitment to give market forces greater sway in setting the yuan's exchange rate. The Wall Street Journal...
Waiting on Japanese Data, the Yen is Up for Now
The yen is the strongest of the major currencies. It has gained about 0.65% against the dollar. It has been grinding lower throughout the Asian and European session and has remained in narrow ranges near its highs in the US...
Currency Speculators Jump Ahead of Fed Signals
Speculative positioning in the currency futures began to adjust before the latest signals from the Federal Reserve about the prospects for a summer hike and the widening of interest rate differentials. In the CFTC reporting week ending May 17, the...