Economics
With Whom Will the UK Trade?
With Brexit on the horizon, the UK must decide what kind of trade relationship it should craft with the European Union. The cases of Norway, Switzerland, Canada and other members of the WTO offer inspiration. All have varying degrees of...
ECB President Draghi’s Comments are In Line with Expectations
Draghi said nothing that surprised the market. He acknowledged the resilience of the markets in the aftermath of the UK referendum. He also noted that with new staff forecasts, next September, and the upcoming data, the ECB would be in...
The Philippines and China Look to the AIIB
The Philippines’ new President Rodrigo Duterte has indicated that China could play a key role in developing the Philippines’ infrastructure. Even before the election, Duterte announced that he is willing to back down on the South China Sea dispute with...
South Korea’s Bridge Between the U.S. and North Korea
US and North Korean diplomats attended the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD) in Beijing on 22 June. Despite having talked at dinner, the US State Department insisted they did not ‘meet’ with North Korean officials. Also in June, Han Song-ryol,...
Post-referendum Fear of Contagion Lessens
It is a bizarre turn of events. Just as the Game of Throne's Westeros is a map of the UK put on top of an inverted Ireland, so too do UK events seem to be a strange permutation of the...
Countries Beware, Populism can be Expensive
Populism has become a defining feature of the political landscape on both sides of the Atlantic. In addition, populists succeed by “instilling fear of various real or imagined dangers.” Populism has become a defining feature of the political landscape...
China and the Philippines Historic Window of Opportunity
After the South China Sea arbitration ruling, uncertainty and friction may increase in the region. However, the economic promise of China’s rise and the Asian century will only materialize with peace and stability in the region. On July 12, the...
Changing Russia and Japan’s Status to Friends
According to conventional wisdom, regarding Russia–Japan relations there is no prospect for the resolution of the territorial dispute between these ‘distant neighbours’ over the Northern Territories/southern Kuril Islands. However, the words and actions of both countries’ leaders in recent times...
Top 5 Tuesday
The US dollar is sporting a firmer profile today, but it is not the driver. Heightened speculation that Australia and New Zealand may cut interest rates next month is pushing those respective currencies more than 1% lower today. The Canadian...
Can The Hague’s South China Sea Ruling be Enforced?
Southeast Asia has descended into a maritime insecurity spiral since the April–June 2012 standoff at Scarborough Shoal between Chinese maritime security forces and the Philippine Navy, which motivated Manila to initiate legal arbitration proceedings in The Hague. The Permanent Court...
North Korea is the Thorn in Russia and China’s Side
On 25 June 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing to discuss expanding the China–Russia strategic partnership. Much of their efforts in this direction so far have entailed taking steps to promote bilateral cooperation...
I See Your (Article) 7 and Raise You 50
Due to an unlikely string of events, the UK had sorted out its government more than two months quicker than it had looked likely in the immediate aftermath of the referendum when Cameron resigned. However, to the frustration of others...
Turkish Coup Over, Risk Assets Rise
The US dollar and the yen are trading heavy, while risk assets, including emerging markets, and the Turkish lira, have jumped. Sterling is the strongest of the majors. It is up about 0.5% (~$1.6365), helped by the opportunity of GBP23.4...
The Markets’ Eyes Turn Towards the EMU
Four large dramas being played out among the major high income countries. The drama in the Eurozone moves center stage in the days ahead, with an important European Court of Justice ruling due and the ECB meeting. Four large dramas...
Lost at Sea
Chinese dredging vessels are purportedly seen in the waters around Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Reuters It’s now official: the South China Sea does not belong to China. Chinese dredging vessels are purportedly...
