Economics

The upheaval sweeping through Zimbabwe comes with a new economic and political reality – the informalisation of the country’s economy. In Zimbabwe today, the informal sector is the economy. The upheaval sweeping through Zimbabwe comes with a new economic and political reality – the informalisation...

Beneath its surface-level bluster, China’s authoritative response to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) arbitration this week contained welcome hints that China may be subtly, and under cover of a strong stance on its South...

If the United States Federal Reserve tightens or eases monetary conditions, this impacts emerging economies. Over the years since the global financial crisis, a second type of spillover has emerged: spillovers stemming from the uncertainty about future monetary policy. Uncertainty...

The Bank of England surprised many, if not most, participants by not changing policy.  There was no rate cut and no asset purchase plan. However, there can be little doubt that the BOE will take action next month.  The minutes...

After a nearly three weeks of turmoil following the UK referendum, there is now a sense of order returning to UK politics.  Two elements of the new government are particularly relevant.  First, May demonstrates strategic prowess by putting those like...

Another week in America, another week of sadness and hand wringing prompted by gun violence. Another week in America, another week of sadness and hand wringing prompted by gun violence. While the most recent incidents are tinged by race, they also point to a...

Donald Trump has defied all expectations about the US presidential election by emerging as the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. For Japan, his extreme rhetoric brings to the fore a fundamental question as to the future of the US...

The two main developments in the foreign exchange market this week in recent days has been the opposite of what has transpired over the past several weeks.  Sterling moved higher quickly.  The yen moved down just as fast.  Over the...

Surveying democratic election results around the world, it’s clear the high water mark for globalisation has been met. Free trade, always-questionable economics, is no longer good politics and in many ways has jumped the shark. Surveying democratic election results around the...

The annual China-EU Summit is a great opportunity for Beijing and Brussels to align complementary investment agendas. Failure is no longer an option. The annual EU-China Summit will take place in Beijing in mid-week. The high stakes are reflected by...

The 26th meeting of the North East Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), a one and a half track forum whose membership mirrors the Six-Party Talks, was held in Beijing late last month. North Korea began to attend the NEACD in 2002,...

Sterling is leading the new appetite for risk as one element of political uncertainty has been lifted.  It is moving higher for the third consecutive session today; advancing by more than 1.5 cents to reach $1.3180. It staged an impressive...

International media have come to focus on Tuesday’s anticipated decision in the Philippines’ arbitration against China. Beijing’s recent propaganda and diplomatic blitz has raised the prominence of the case to new heights. The dispute involves no fewer than 15 issues,...

The combination of the rebounding US job growth and gains in the S&P 500 to near record levels before the weekend is helping boost the US dollar against the major currencies, while the emerging market currencies are mixed.  In addition,...

Investors are under siege.  A growing proportion of bonds in Europe and Japan offer negative yields.  The German and Japanese curves are negative out 15-years, while one cannot find a positive yield among any tenor of Swiss government bonds.  Despite...