United States

3 April 2015

The Dollar’s Kryptonite in the Form of a Jobs Report

The US March employment report makes for dismal reading.  Job growth collapsed to 126k, the least monthly total since December 2013. Adding insult to injury, there was a 69k downward revision to this year's job growth. The average workweek slipped...

26 February 2015

Is this a U.S. Economic ‘Deflategate’?

US prices are falling.  The 0.7% decline in US consumer prices was the largest monthly drop since December 2008.  Consumer prices in January fell 0.1% from a year ago.  The last time the year-over-year CPI was negative was when the...

16 October 2014

U.S. Economic Suspicions are Proving Correct

The market is a fickle mistress.  At the end of September, and at the start of this month, we pushed against the hawkish read of the Fed’s dot-plots.  We resisted talk of a Fed hike in Q1 15.  We explained...

30 July 2014

Strong GDP Figures Extend Gains to Dollar and Stocks

The US dollar is extending its gains in response to the strong US GDP figures.  There are four elements of the report to note.  First, the economy expanded by 4.0% in Q2, well above consensus expectations.  Second, Q1 was revised...

21 July 2014

Nervous Calm Amid Forex Markets to Start the Week

The US dollar is little changed to start the week. The apparent calm masks heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza. Equity markets are trading heavy and this is helping to give the core bond markets, including US Treasuries, a...

16 July 2014

Dollar Firms on Hump Day, but does it have Staying Power ?

The US dollar is trading higher against the major currencies. Many observers are attributing dollar's gains yesterday and today to comments from Yellen. We are concerned that this is not a fair interpretation of Yellen, or necessarily of the market. ...

8 October 2013

Obama: Already A Lame-Duck President?

U.S. President Barack Obama first shot to global prominence in 2004 as a uniter, not a divider. But while most of the blame for Washington’s gross dysfunction will probably lie at the feet of the Republican right, that hates Obama...