United States

The US dollar is set to close the week on a strong note.  The relatively constructive data is boosting confidence that the Federal Reserve will have the opportunity it has been looking for to begin, however gradual, the normalization of...

The US dollar is enjoying firmer tone as the week winds down.  It is up against all the major currencies but the Norwegian krone today.  This trims the loss for the week.  In fact, the roughly 0.7% decline of the...

As I read the news and watch the markets, I am struck by the yawning difference between what is going on with the economy and what is happening with equities. I know the worn out arguments. People are buying stocks...

The year 2014 was a great year for the United States economy. However, the year 2015 hasn't been the same. While we are still not in dire straits, we're not seeing the consumer spending and job growth that we saw...

The US March employment report makes for dismal reading.  Job growth collapsed to 126k, the least monthly total since December 2013. Adding insult to injury, there was a 69k downward revision to this year's job growth. The average workweek slipped...

Lest we be too quick to forget whence we came, America is now 9-months into lower gasoline prices, which started their swoon the week of June 30, 2015 from a lofty national average just under $3.70, tumbling almost every subsequent...

Despite poor weather that appears to have effected other February data, the US jobs report is stronger than expected.  The economy grew 295k net new jobs, nearly all accounted for by the private sector (+288k). Some of the other details were...

US prices are falling.  The 0.7% decline in US consumer prices was the largest monthly drop since December 2008.  Consumer prices in January fell 0.1% from a year ago.  The last time the year-over-year CPI was negative was when the...

The market is a fickle mistress.  At the end of September, and at the start of this month, we pushed against the hawkish read of the Fed’s dot-plots.  We resisted talk of a Fed hike in Q1 15.  We explained...

The US employment data was disappointing. The short-term market had been leaning the wrong way. The recent data had fanned hopes that the labor market was accelerating, but today’s data suggest the pace of improvement has not changed. It is the...

The US dollar is extending its gains in response to the strong US GDP figures.  There are four elements of the report to note.  First, the economy expanded by 4.0% in Q2, well above consensus expectations.  Second, Q1 was revised...

The US dollar is little changed to start the week. The apparent calm masks heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza. Equity markets are trading heavy and this is helping to give the core bond markets, including US Treasuries, a...

The US dollar is trading higher against the major currencies. Many observers are attributing dollar's gains yesterday and today to comments from Yellen. We are concerned that this is not a fair interpretation of Yellen, or necessarily of the market. ...

U.S. President Barack Obama first shot to global prominence in 2004 as a uniter, not a divider. But while most of the blame for Washington’s gross dysfunction will probably lie at the feet of the Republican right, that hates Obama...

America’s “Great Stagnation” first began in 1973, when both income and productivity started to show signs of slowing down.  But thanks to the shale boom, the figures are once again on the rise and may continue to rise further.  America’s...