The World Economy
The World Economy In 2013: The Calm Before The Storm? After nearly four years of economic turmoil, the global economy in 2013, comparatively at least, appears to be now reaching a period of relative calm. The World Economy In 2013:...
Abenomics – A Fatal Misdiagnosis Of Japan’s Real Problem?: Marc Chandler
Based on the latest data, Abenomics appears to be, for the moment at least, achieving its stated objectives. Yet for its recent success, Abenomics only addresses the symptoms, and not the real cause, of Japan’s long-term problems. Co-authored with my...
Could Rising Tensions Over South China Sea Lead to Sino-American War?
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant. China claims it has sovereign rights to nearly all of the territory, which is believed to sit atop extensive reserves of oil and gas. The claims are however...
Will Slowing Investment Drag China’s Reform Efforts?: Michael Pettis
China wants to raise its disproportionately small share of consumption as the cornerstone effort to close one of the world’s widest income gaps and quell rising discontent among those who feel they have missed out on the country’s blistering expansion...
Is The US Shale Boom Already Over?
During the last three years, the mantra in the U.S. for shale has been, "Drill, baby, drill.” But the reality is there is only one true gas formation in the U.S. that is increasing production – Marcellus – while every...
India’s Chit Fund Crisis: Indicative Of A Global Market Failure?
The recent chit fund scam in India saw thousands of depositors, mostly poor people in villages and small towns, lose their hard-earned money after Saradha Group, who were believed to be running a wide variety of collective investment schemes, collapsed....
External Realities May Ruin Japan’s Economic Experiment: Mohamed El-Erian
Weeks into Japan's paradigm shift in economic policy, optimism that the country may end a quarter-century of economic stagnation is balanced by fears that the authorities' new approach may make things worse. And, while debate naturally focuses on Japan's internal...
Why The World Needs A BRICS Bank: Nicholas Stern, Joseph Stiglitz et al.
The significance of the decision by the BRICS to create a new development bank that they will fund cannot be overemphasized. Emerging markets and developing countries are taking the future into their own hands – at a time when rich...
A Huge Fed-Induced Credit Bubble By 2017?: Nouriel Roubini
Since injecting more than $2 trillion into the financial system through three rounds of quantitative easing, the U.S. Federal Reserve is gradually realising that their experiment to kick-start the economy with near-zero interest rates has failed. Contemplating an exit strategy...
A Major Rethink For Japan’s Age-Old Problem?
Since 2000, Japan has managed to offset its shrinking labour force with increased worker productivity – at a rate higher than most other advanced economies. But, Japan’s productivity gains are soon reaching its limits and the nation must once again...
Can Investor Confidence Recover After The Latest Market Shocks?
Over the past week or so, a series of market shocks managed to throw investor confidence worldwide off balance. Although individually, none of these tremors were relatively big deals, collectively, they shook both investors and economists – and may ultimately...
Margaret Thatcher’s Economic Legacy: A Nation Divided
The funeral of former British PM Margaret Thatcher saw a nation divided in hatred and love for one of the most iconic world leaders of modern times. While, Inner London today is one of the richest parts of the entire...
Curse Of The Black Gold – How Oil Exporters Reach Financial Collapse: Gail Tverberg
Although oil often provides an abundance of riches to producing nations, declining production capabilities, coupled with the volatility of oil prices, can lead some exporters down a road to financial collapse. Egypt, Syria, Yemen and the former Soviet Union have...
Will China Succeed In Its Self-Imposed Revolution?: Michael Pettis
In a system in which almost all the growth is driven by increases in investment, and in which an increasing share of investment is being wasted on factories, bridges, real estate, airports, and other projects that have little or no...
Racing Against Time: Will Asia Grow Old Before Getting Rich?
A large proportion of Asian countries are currently at the top of the working-age population hump. For them, the window of opportunity to prepare for an older population will close within the next decade. But how can Asian countries take...