The Search for Growth in a Multi-Speed World: Mohamed El-Erian
The last few years have highlighted the declining potency of long-standing growth models. Today, some of the biggest world economies struggle to create ample, well-paid and secure jobs amid a secular re-alignment of the global economy. This is a challenge...
Japan’s Gamble on Growth: Joseph Stiglitz
Despite persistent deflation and tepid economic growth, things are looking up for Japan under the new Prime Minister. Shinzo Abe’s Keynesian-inspired reform programme is essentially a replay of what Takahashi Korekiyo achieved in the 1930s, when Japan escaped the Great...
Emerging Markets Heading For Stagflation-Lite?
With many of the world’s major emerging economies now moving towards a stagflation-lite situation, where inflation sticky at high levels but with growth decelerating or stagnant, can leaders find the correct policy response?Here is an update on several emerging markets...
Rumours Of The Death Of The BRICS Are Greatly Exaggerated: Dan Steinbock
As a result of monetary expansion and fiscal stagnation in the advanced world, the BRICS countries are no longer immune to the debt crises that have plagued the developed economies. But contrary to what the critics may believe, the...
Assessing The Global Economy’s Myriad Of Challenges: Nouriel Roubini
Following the 2008 financial crisis, it is almost inconceivable to think that America today represents the greatest hope for the global economy. Yet, with Europe struggling to restore growth, China facing a hard landing if critical structural reforms are postponed,...
New Leadership, New China?: Dan Steinbock
In his inaugural address last Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke about the "Chinese Dream", in which the mainland will restore its role as the largest economy worldwide. But unlike their predecessors, Xi and his fellow leaders can no...
Central Bank Policies – On Borrowed Time?: Mohamed El-Erian
Expansionary central bank policies have, in recent months, helped investors shrug off troubling political uncertainties in order to spark a recovery in global financial markets. Nonetheless, some have called the market rally “one of the most unloved” in history –...
Why Shale Will Not Solve Peak Oil: Dave Summers Interview
This where we stand, and it's a fairly bleak view: Peak oil is almost here, and nothing new (with the possible but unlikely exception of Iraq) is coming online anytime soon and while the clock is ticking – forward movement...
Will Europe’s Austerity Lead To Another Great Depression?: Dan Steinbock
Until recently, Brussels has supported primarily frontload austerity measures. When President Hoover tried similar policies in 1930s America, a severe recession morphed into a devastating Great Depression. Is Europe following in the footprints? On Monday (11 March), the President of...
High Oil Price’s Heavy Burden On Government Debt: Gail Tverberg
Recently, the growth of most types of US debt has stalled. The major exception however is governmental debt, which is still growing rapidly. In our current circumstances, the US is reaching its debt limit mainly because of a specific resource...
The Comedian Cometh: Why Beppe Grillo’s Success Is No Laughing Matter
On Sunday, Beppe Grillo's anti-establishment 5-Star Movement announced its intentions to lead Italy's next government, though it reiterated that it would not agree to any alliances. Throughout his campaign, Grillo has successfully articulated the angst of the well-educated, yet under-employed...
Will Europe’s Unemployment Crisis Spark A Return For Fascism? : George Friedman
Fascism had its roots in Europe, during the 1920s and 1930s, in massive economic failures in which the financial elites failed to recognize the political consequences of unemployment. While history may not repeat itself so neatly, the emergence of new...
Will the Transatlantic Free Trade Pact Materialise?: Mohamed El-Erian
The promise of freer transatlantic trade is potentially transformational and comes at a time when the West is increasingly dragged down by short-term disruptions and continued policy inertia. But its implementation prospects are far from promising - its challenges highlight...
Europe’s Austerity ‘Cure’ Will Never Work: Joseph Stiglitz
While Europe’s leaders shy away from the word, the reality is that much of the European Union is in depression. Indeed, it will now take a decade or more to recover from the losses incurred by misguided austerity policies –...
Monetary Missteps? – 10 Concerns About Quantitative Easing: Nouriel Roubini
Central banks worldwide today are utilising unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing, to jump-start growth in their anemic economies. But if such policies remain in place for too long, their side effects could be severe – and the longer-term...