Investing

Since late July, I have been looking for the Australian dollar to turn lower.  Instead, the Aussie has continued to climb.  It has risen in ten of the past eleven weeks.  As this Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, these gains...

This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg.  I use it to illustrate a possible head and shoulder pattern that has been carved by the US dollar against the yen.  Head and shoulders patterns are most often regarded as a reversal...

Today is anniversary of the final blow to the dollar-gold standard.  By August 15, 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was limited to central banks, and US President Nixon unilaterally ended it.  There was a brief attempt to resurrect...

Speculative position adjustments in the currency futures continued at a low pace in the Commitment of Traders report for the week ending August 9.  There were though two distinct patterns. The first pattern is found in the euro, Swiss franc,...

The US dollar has found steadier footing today after trading heavily yesterday.  There are two main themes.  The first is sterling’s heavy tone.  After closing the North American session 0.5% higher yesterday to snap a five-day losing streak, it has...

As non-traditional monetary policies in advanced economies are likely to eclipse, investors will increasingly turn to gold to hedge their portfolios.  Around mid-April, when the price of gold was still about $1,290, I made a contrarian projection that gold had...

For a period that included a BOJ and FOMC meeting and the US GDP, speculators in the currency futures were unusually quiet.  Summer holidays with family may be more important.  For a period that included a BOJ and FOMC meeting...

The robust US employment report before the weekend allowed the dollar to recoup the losses it experienced earlier in the week against most of the major currencies.  The Australian dollar and Japanese yen managed to hold onto minor gains for...

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the Federal Reserve's real broad trade-weighted index of the dollar.  Real means that it is adjusted for inflation differentials.   Broad means that it covers a wide number of US partners.   Trade-weighted means that...

The US dollar is offered against the major currencies, but appreciating against many emerging market currencies, include the South African rand and Turkish lira.  Oil prices are trying to stabilize with Brent near $42 and WTI near $40, but the...

There does not seem to be a large pattern in the speculative position adjustments in the CFTC reporting week ending July 26.  There was only one significant position adjustment (10k of more contracts).  The euro bears added another 10.3k contracts...

Our informal and simple model for the Canadian dollar has three variables: oil, interest rates, and general risk environment.  Over time, the coefficient of the variables can and do change.  Of the three variables, the general risk environment is the...

What promises to be a busy week has begun off slowly.  The US dollar has been largely confined to its pre-weekend ranges against most of the major currencies.  What promises to be a busy week has begun off slowly.  The...

Speculators made several significant position adjustments in the CFTC reporting period ending 19 July.  The euro bears added to their gross short position for the fourth consecutive week and for the ninth week in the past ten.  The 16.2k contract...

The weighted average of the Fed funds rate has edged higher.  Following the Fed hike in December 2015, the Fed funds average around 36 bp in January before moving into a 37-38 bp range.  However, since the UK referendum it...