Economics

Ongoing disputes in the South China Sea between China and four ASEAN member nations — Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam — have dealt a major blow to the centrality and unity of ASEAN. Internal differences were on public display...

There has been a lot of news about the possibility of raising minimum wages to higher and higher rates. However, stories about the definition of extreme poverty make news less frequently. In fact, most would probably be surprised to find...

Russia has recently raised the priority given to East Asia in its foreign policy. This trend has further accelerated following the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. How is the policy progressing and what is its impact on Russia’s...

The global capital markets are stabilizing in Europe after continued selling in Asia after the US slide yesterday.  The dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies.  Higher oil and copper prices have helped the helped steady the Australian dollar. ...

Bloomberg created a function that claims to give the odds of a Fed move by interpolating from the Fed funds futures and options contracts. It is widely used, but I remain a skeptic. Bloomberg created a function that claims to...

Sterling and the yen are gaining against the dollar while the other major currencies are little changed, and emerging currencies are mixed.  Sterling's has gained about 0.35%, mostly in the European morning, and appears largely driven by demand on the...

The main thrust of our bullish US dollar outlook is the divergence in monetary policy trajectories. We do not think the divergence has peaked and anticipate it to persist through next year and into 2017.   The main thrust of our...

While many Americans breathed a sigh of relief after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would not be increasing the prime rate this month, the decision also had ramifications for other nations. As a result, the head of...

The Fed's Chair seemed to have surprised the market with her comments after North American markets closed yesterday.  She reiterated what the Fed said last week.  It is still on the path to hike rates before the end of the...

The results of the China–US summit between Presidents’ Xi Jinping and Barack Obama come at a critical turning point in the relationship.  They will reshape the direction of the Asia Pacific region and even global politics. In the interests of...

Chancellor Angela Merkel has shown great compassion in allowing hundreds of thousands of refugees to enter Germany. Nevertheless, she has to avoid playing into the hands of the far right, as well as placating angry Eastern European neighbours. Chancellor Angela...

China and Europe are seeing lower manufacturing activity, with the sector declining in China and expanding weaker than expected in Europe. According to the Caixin China purchasing managers’ index, demand for manufactured goods is shrinking. The PMI fell to 47,...

The world economy has seen many changes this year. Interestingly, in many cases theory seemed far from what happened practically in the global financial markets. While many questioned the effect China on various economies, Eurozone was going through its own...

The US dollar is trading heavier after extending its post-FOMC gains that saw the euro and sterling record two-week lows yesterday.  The euro extended its recovery that was marked by yesterday's outside session.  Its gains have stalled in front of...

Evidence of a strain in the diplomatic relationship between China and Japan over the past few years has been most apparent in the absence of summits between top government leaders, which has in turn affected routine meetings at the ministerial...