Economics

History strongly suggests that the character of relations among major powers is a key determinant of stability. Europe convulsed in continuous warfare until France and Germany came to terms after World War II. Only then did Europe enjoy the prospects...

Amid light news, the downward pressure on the US dollar has continued against the majors but emerging market currencies are a mixed picture.  The key driver is the spate of comments from the Fed's Fischer, the ECB's Draghi, and BOJ's...

There is a sense that the markets are at crossroads.  Many suspect, there has been a trend change.   The reason for many to buy the dollar was the Fed was going to raise interest rates.  Lift-off may not be simply...

The recent Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement presents Asia with good, bad and ugly scenarios. Had the TPP failed, that would have been a severe blow to the credibility of the United States in Asia. Yet, it excludes Asia’s largest economies –...

The US dollar is on its back foot. It was already sporting a softer bias and the FOMC minutes had a dovish twist.  A Wall Street Journal poll found 64% of economists expect a hike in December, and while the...

As of October, fifty-one prospective founding members signed the China-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Articles of Agreement, which expects to be operational by the end of 2015. China has generally been cooperative with and supportive of Bretton Woods multilateral...

The US dollar has eased to new lows for the week against the euro and yen.  There does not seem to be a big fundamental driver.  If anything the weakness in German exports, following as it does the soft orders...

Increasingly reliant on each other for sustainable economic growth, the United States and China have fallen into a classic co-dependency trap, bristling at changes in the rules of engagement. The symptoms of this insidious pathology were on clear display during...

On Monday, October 05, 2015, the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations reached a final agreement on the largest regional trade accord in history. Now, the treaty needs approval from Congress, and many analysts fear this could be...

Since the Federal Reserve left rates on hold on September 17, the dollar-bloc currencies have outperformed the euro, yen, and sterling, all three of which are lower against the dollar.  So far this week the New Zealand dollar is the...

The Greek crisis has periodically dominated international headlines since 2009, when its economic and fiscal crunch led to a series of debt downgrades and ushered in fears of default. So what lessons does the crisis hold for the ASEAN Economic...

It took nearly eight years, but a dozen countries on both sides of the Pacific Rim, which account for 40% of the world's GDP reached a trade agreement.  Attention will now shift to the ratification process.  It took nearly eight...

Pundits and policymakers increasingly see changing great-power politics in Asia as a challenge to ASEAN. China’s growing military assertiveness in the South China Sea, the US ‘rebalancing’ strategy, Japan’s moves to reinterpret its constitution, and India’s growing military presence and...

The US dollar's recovery gains pared following the drop in response to the poor jobs data, except against the yen.  There the greenback extended its gains toward JPY120.25, with the help of weak Japanese data, and speculation that the BOJ...

The unexpectedly poor September US jobs data weakened the greenback's technical tone, as questions about the underlying strength of the world's largest economy, and the implications for the Fed's take-off, intensify.  US economic data scheduled to release in the week...