Economics

After a few sessions of light news, the flash Chinese Caixin flash manufacturing PMI and EMU PMIs provided new economic insight.  However, the macro-picture has not changed very much.  China's economy has not bottomed while European growth appears to remain...

The Federal Reserve threw investors a curve ball last week.  Until then, Fed officials have shown a clear preference for survey-based measures of inflation expectations.  Last week, seemingly out of the blue, that Fed made reference to market-based measures of...

Questions of history were the focus of a long hot summer in Northeast Asia. Many speculated that on the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with his cabinet’s approval, would issue a...

The US defence establishment’s provocative plan to assert freedom of navigation by patrolling near China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea appears to have stalled. But if the United States abandons the policy it will forego an important opportunity...

Indian governments spend enormous resources to collect data — including 12 billion and 22 billion rupees on decennial censuses in 2001 and 2011, respectively. Yet they appear reluctant to release it. The latest decennial census data on religion, for example,...

The US dollar started softer in Asia, where Japan is on holiday for the first half of the week, but has come back bid in Europe.  The key issues now seem to revolve around intentions and implementations.  Those are the...

Temporal Inconsistencies at the Fed:  The Fed's decision to delay the beginning of the normalization of monetary policy of undermines confidence in when lift-off will actually take place. Temporal Inconsistencies at the Fed:  The Fed's decision to delay the beginning...

The Federal Reserve left the Fed funds target at 0-25 bp.  It recognized continued improvement in the US economy but raised the level of concern over international developments. The Federal Reserve left the Fed funds target at 0-25 bp.  It...

Markets have been speculating for months about whether the US Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September. The day has finally arrived, and interestingly, there’s much less certainty now about which way it will go than there was just...

India and the US have discussed a bilateral economic treaty at great length, but little actual progress has occurred. According to a senior US trade official, progress on the bilateral investment treaty has been "slow" due to the absence of...

The much-awaited FOMC meeting is here. Discussions appear to revolve around to main questions.  What should the Fed do and what will they do?  The two are often confused.  Everyone has an opinion about the former.  It is like watching...

During Pope Francis’ visit to the United States next week, he will insist that the church transcends partisan politics, and I am sure he means this sincerely. However, that will not prevent his visit from having political ramifications. During Pope...

Seven years ago today, following frenzied weekend meetings, Lehman filed for bankruptcy. It confirmed the end of an era in a way that Bear Stearns demise had only hinted.   The world has not been the same since. Seven years ago...

Human rights campaigners have levied some serious accusations against the World Bank Group. The accusations assert that the World Bank has repeatedly either targeted or failed to protect individuals that have protested World Bank funded development projects, such as the...

The US dollar trades narrowly mixed to start what could be a pivotal week.  The week has two parts: before and after the FOMC meeting.  Before the meeting, we expect broad consolidation, with a modest downside bias in the dollar,...