Economics

In a surprising development, US congressional Republicans and a few of their business allies now pose the biggest threat to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). With the announcement of the agreement on 5 October, there was no support from a single...

After five years of struggle, the United States, Japan and 10 other economies in Asia and Latin America signed a massive trade pact: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The winners are obvious: US President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo...

From the Federal Reserve's reluctance to raise interest rates in September, through the soft employment and retail sales report, and two Fed Governors arguing against a rate hike this year, the pendulum of expectations has swung hard.  The implied yield...

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week.  It recovered in the second half of the week against the euro and yen.  It was an unusual week in that the New Zealand dollar was the strongest of the...

People who become homeless as a child are more likely to have lower employment rates in adulthood than those who become homeless later, according to new research showing the economic and social costs of homelessness. Nearly one fifth of homeless...

At Tuesday’s Democratic debate, they asked candidates to name the enemies they are most proud of making.  Front-runner Hillary Clinton’s answer? Drug companies (along with the National Rifle Association, “the Iranians” and Republicans). At Tuesday’s Democratic debate, they asked candidates...

Labor’s proposals designed to “safeguard” Australian workers under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) are a step in the right direction and are likely to break the impasse that has prevented the trade agreement passing through the Senate. In essence,...

  Markets and economists have long been obsessed with the Fed's first interest rate hike in nine years, but it seems the factors are not reciprocating positively to what the Fed is looking for. Reports on labor and emerging economies coupled with...

I remain a dollar bull on a medium and longer-term basis, but recognize that stale longs are bailing, and there is an establishment of new momentum shorts.  I remain a dollar bull on a medium and longer-term basis, but recognize...

Relations between Japan and China shifted significantly during the Koizumi years and this has created ongoing issues for the relationship between the two countries even today. Junichiro Koizumi served as Japanese prime minister from April 2001 to September 2006, —...

A bipartisan letter from the US House of Representatives has urged the US government to verbally and physically challenge, China’s purported claims to 12 nautical mile territorial seas around its artificial formations in the South China Sea. The letter also...

Yesterday's mostly counter-trend moves ended abruptly.  A second governor of the Federal Reserve voiced opposition to the intimation by Yellen and Fischer, and several regional presidents that a rate hike is still appropriate this year.  This helped renew the downside...

On Monday in the staff common rooms of economics departments throughout the world, I doubt anyone was complaining about the award of this year’s Nobel Prize for economics to Angus Deaton. It is a choice perhaps with a view to...

The cyber theft of millions of personal dossiers from the United States Office of Personnel Management (OPM), revealed by US authorities in June 2015, has put the US government in an awkward position. In April 2015, US Defense Secretary Ash...

The recent trends in the global capital markets are reversing today.  Although the price action yesterday warned of the risk, there have been five fundamental developments that are contributing to the price action today.  The first development was China's September...