Economics

28 October 2015

Mobilizing Against Austerity? Grab Your Smartphone

Protests against austerity continue to roil parts of Europe, most recently in Brussels earlier this month when 100,000 people took to the streets and police deployed water cannons. Protests against austerity continue to roil parts of Europe, most recently in...

27 October 2015

A Call for Rates Down Under to Go Down

When Australia’s Reserve Bank board meets on Melbourne Cup day next week, the question at hand is whether the RBA will seek to offset recent bank rate raises with a cut to the cash rate. With a cut, the hope...

27 October 2015

The Inevitable U.S. FON Operations in the South China Sea

Recent statements suggest that the United States will soon conduct freedom of navigation (FON) operations against China’s artificial formations in the South China Sea (SCS). But there is far more handwringing going on than necessary, as demonstrated in a recent...

27 October 2015

The BOJ and FOMC Capture Investors’ Attention

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Sweden's Riksbank can still surprise investors, but it is the BOJ and FOMC meetings that are the talk of the markets.  Surveys suggest that around 40% of investors expect the BOJ to expand...

25 October 2015

A Dollar Save by the ECB and PBOC

The combination of the dovish signals from the European Central Bank and the rate cut by the People’s Bank of China lifted the US dollar just as it was threatening to fall through the lower end of its recent ranges. ...

23 October 2015

The ECB’s Draghi Gets Dovish

ECB President Draghi sent an unambiguous signal to investors. Although the economic data from the region has been largely stable, the downside risks have grown, and the ECB will take action at its next meeting, which is in early December....

22 October 2015

Economic Principles Hidden in a ‘Who Done It’

If you read or watch detective stories, you probably do not think about them as an expression of economic principles. However, at their heart, that is exactly what they are. In addition, it is not just detective stories, but works...

22 October 2015

Is the IMF Overstretched?

The Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Lima, Peru have now concluded. This year’s meetings saw debates on the normalisation of US monetary policy, China’s new growth model, emerging market vulnerabilities and the...

22 October 2015

The ECB Steps Up to the Plate

The main event today is the ECB meeting.  Many observers expect a dovish tilt as Draghi prepares to expand QE in December.  A Bloomberg survey conducted last week found that 80% of economists expect the ECB to eventually do so,...

21 October 2015

President Xi Gets Techy in the U.K.

Much has been made of Chinese president Xi Jinping’s visit to the UK. Amid all the fanfare, both countries have hailed it as the dawn of a “golden era” of relations. While the benefits seem clear to the UK, which...

21 October 2015

Central Bank Meetings Begin

Japan's trade balance was worse than expected in September.  It posted a JPY114. Japan's trade balance was worse than expected in September.  It posted a JPY114. bln deficit.  The expectation was a small surplus.  Exports rose a mere 0.6% compared...

20 October 2015

World Bank: Global Poverty End in 15 Years

The World Bank said this week that the world is capable of ending global poverty in the next 15 years, but described this action as "extraordinarily difficult." If the nations of the world can band together in making difficult decisions...

20 October 2015

The US is not Helping its Case in the South China Sea

Strong calls continue in Washington for the US Navy to increase its freedom of navigation (FON) activities in the South China Sea. This is despite apparent differences of view between the Pentagon and the White House about the wisdom of...

19 October 2015

How Will China and Japan Handle a Regional Power Flip?

After World War II and the end of Japanese military expansion, many countries fought for and won their independence in Asia. In 1949, China ended its internal disorder by establishing the People’s Republic of China. The Cold War divided Asia,...