Economics

Anybody who has seen a convertible caught in a rainstorm understands the importance of weather forecasts. In addition, the expectation is that the forecast is in fact accurate and reliable. Economies, like weather systems, are complex. Instead of having a...

Let’s consider a scenario. On leaving the European Union, Britain will make a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, or trade with it under World Trade Organisation most-favoured-nation (MFN) rules. It will also regain its WTO seat and make trade...

Most prospective prime ministers would be mildly embarrassed if a boost to their chances made financial markets plunge. However, Boris Johnson is doubtless gratified that his backing for Brexit led to the pound’s biggest one-day fall since the aftermath of...

The US dollar and yen remain firm.  The ramifications of Brexit continue to weigh on sterling and the euro.  After nearing $1.4050 yesterday, sterling could not move much above $1.4150 before sellers re-emerged.  The euro, which came close to $1.10...

As the European Union grew, the unanimity in decision-making increasingly gave way to qualified majority voting.  This development took away an important weapon the UK deployed to pursue its national interest.  The use often frustrates the collectivist decision-making in Brussels...

On 4 February IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde warned that the global financial safety net — the international resources and institutions designated to fight economic crises and prevent contagion — has become too fragmented and asymmetric. The safety net, she...

The main driver of the investment climate is not so much the incremental economic data as the capital markets themselves. The market turmoil contributed to the tightening of financial conditions, which in turn heightened risks, which monetary officials are committed...

Global equities are beginning the last week of February on a firm note.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.75%, with China's markets gaining more than 2%, leading the way. European shares have followed suit.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600...

After a terrible first several weeks of the year, global capital markets stabilized in the past week.  Chinese markets re-opened after the extended Lunar New Year holiday and proved not to be disruptive.  Chinese equities did not decline to catch-up...

The recent Zika virus outbreak has done more than terrify millions of people around the world; it has had an effect on global economies. Some countries have had to divert meager means to try to combat the outbreak. Others have...

The RBA minutes were not what I would call a riveting read. It almost verbatim confirms what was announced in the statement of monetary policy. Last month’s the unemployment rate dropped (although January’s monthly figures show a surprise bump, for...

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) may yet be the agreement that most transforms national regulatory systems. It could be even more transformative than the Uruguay Round (1986–1994) that delivered the WTO and the 1994 Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property...

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) started quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) in 2013, committing to achieve 2 percent inflation in two years. Since then, almost three years have passed. However, the target has not been achieved, and it is...

For the past five years, Christine Lagarde’s face has been splashed across the media above headlines pertaining to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Lagarde has been one of the most visible leaders of an international economic organization in recent history,...

In 2016, the regional order in East Asia will continue to be characterised by a sense of instability. A key question as 2016 progresses will be: how best to focus US–Japan cooperation to address both the challenges and opportunities that...