Economics

Recent trends, which include firmer equities and oil, weaker euro and bonds, and stronger dollar-bloc currencies, are reversing today, a turn-around Tuesday of sorts. MSCI's Emerging Market equity index is snapping a seven-day advancing streak, giving back yesterday's gains and...

Whether Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or somebody else takes the White House, pragmatism is likely to be the eventual winner. Dan Steinbock looks ahead to how an American presidency led by either of the two leading contenders will deal with...

The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has expressed deep approval for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) plan to allow all countries to participate in its Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) plan. The International Chamber of Commerce...

The US dollar is retracing part of its pre-weekend losses against the European currencies and dollar-bloc today while falling equity prices are underpinning the yen.  Brent is nearing $40 a barrel, and WTI is pushing through $36.  Iron ore prices...

Sometimes the news stream drives prices, and sometimes the price action drives the narratives.  We argued that the sharp decline in equities at the start of the year was fanned the doom and gloom in the media and market commentary. ...

Earlier this month, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop visited Tokyo, where she outlined an increasing emphasis on security cooperation between Japan and Australia. The next day she was in Beijing, where she reportedly received a frosty reception. The two are not...

The optics of the US jobs report was better than the details, which is the exact opposite of the January employment report.  The US dollar strengthened on the news. The optics of the US jobs report was better than the...

The President of the World Bank made headlines this week with comments about the institution’s position on the rights of lesbians, gays, bisexuals, and transgendered individuals. Specifically, he noted that the bank would no longer provide funding to developing nations...

The US dollar is mixed ahead of the US employment data.  The Antipodeans and Scandis are doing best while sterling and the Canadian dollar are under-performing. The US dollar is mixed ahead of the US employment data.  The Antipodeans and...

Since its inception in 1990, the H-1B guestworker program that allows employers to bring in high-skilled foreign workers on six-year visas has been steeped in controversy. Since its inception in 1990, the H-1B guestworker program that allows employers to bring in high-skilled foreign workers...

The global capital markets are quiet today, as investors await fresh impetus, which could come in the form of tomorrow's US national employment figures.  There is also next week's ECB meeting that looms large for investors.  The global capital markets...

In October last year, trade ministers from 12 countries reached an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On 4 February, the agreement was signed. These developments have intensified debates within India about whether the country could fit into the TPP’s...

About 30 years ago, I was able to predict the U.S. would see a major generational spending peak in 2007, all from my demographic indicator, the Generational Spending Wave.  On a 46-year lag from the time they were born, that’s...

Deflation is portrayed as the great economic scourge.  It exacerbates debt-servicing costs and encourages consumers to defer purchases.  Central banks in Japan and Europe have responded with aggressive, unorthodox measures, often combining asset purchase programs with negative interest rates.  Deflation...

On Tuesday, March 1, 2016, the World Bank held a forum called the 2016 Forum on Fragility, Conflict and Violence. The forum aimed to end extreme poverty around the world by 2030. The vision of the forum is mutual and...