Economics

18 March 2016

After a Weak Week, the Dollar Regains Some Ground

The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies to pare this week's decline.  There are three notable exceptions, and they are all in Asia.  For all practical purposes, the dollar is flat against the Japanese yen...

17 March 2016

New IMF Debt Rules Draw Praise, Criticism

Bankruptcy is the procedure in the United States (and many other nations) that allows a debtor who is no longer able to pay back a debt to come to some form of resolution with his or her creditors, typically allowing...

17 March 2016

Market Participants Gauge the Fed’s Cautiousness

The Federal Reserve's cautiousness has sent the dollar reeling.  The Fed's backtracking to two hikes this year from four is still met with skepticism by the market.  It previously had a June hike nearly discounted but it has not pushed...

16 March 2016

Fewer Rate Hikes, Lower Dollar, Higher Stocks

The Federal Reserve halved the number of rate hikes it anticipates this year from four to two.  The market has been moving toward this as well after having thought there would be no hikes this year.  The dollar sold off. ...

16 March 2016

Monetary Policy’s Strange New World

There’s an old adage in economics that the best way to cure deflation is to drop money from helicopters. Clearly, this phrase isn’t older than mid-20th century, because before that time we didn’t have helicopters… we also didn’t have manipulative...

16 March 2016

A Rate Hike Today would be an FOMC Surprise

Since the Federal Reserve hiked rates in December, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have eased policy further.  The idea that because they cut rates means that the Fed cannot raise rates is a not a...

15 March 2016

Closing Kaesong may have been an Overreation

On 11 February, the South Korean government abruptly shut down the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), a joint inter-Korean industrial zone located just 10 kilometres north of the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ), as a punishment for North Korea’s recent nuclear test and...

15 March 2016

The FOMC Meets and the ECB Moves Linger

The market's focus has shifted to the two-day FOMC meeting that begins today.  The Federal Reserve should be pleased with recent developments.  Labor market slack continues to be absorbed.  Core inflation measures continue to edge higher.  The market's focus has...

14 March 2016

Should Japan Be So Worried about China?

Since the end of the 2000s, a new era for regional cooperation has been unfolding in Asia. China’s ascent as a regional leader, the advent of mega FTAs and the changing presence of India have driven this change. However, what...

14 March 2016

Ahead of the Fed, the Dollar is Still Solid

The US dollar is firmer but largely confined to the ranges seen before the weekend against most of the major currencies.  The yen is also firmer as dollar sellers reemerged near JPY114.00.  The dollar is gaining against most emerging market...