Economic Conditions

Surveys show that around 90% of primary dealers and economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates in the middle of December. Over the past month, the two-year US note yield has risen by nearly 37 bp to 91 bp. ...

The US dollar is trading heavily today.  The losses are not particularly steep against either the majors or the emerging market currencies.  A common narrative is attributing the dollar's pullback to "dovish minutes," but this is not a fair assessment,...

Amid light news, the US dollar’s recent gains have pared slightly.  Attention turns to the US, were several Fed officials speak, October housing starts/permits will be released, and then later in the session, traders will peruse the minutes from last...

The prospect of the Fed rate hike next month while many other countries consider providing more stimuli continues to underpin the dollar.  Corrective downticks remain shallow and brief.  The euro slumps to near seven-month lows just below $1.0645.  The greenback...

Investors have mildly responded to the tragic developments in Paris.  Equities tumbled in Asia, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index shed more than 1%, and the euro briefly pushed below $1.07.  The dollar fell to almost JPY122.20.   US Treasury yield slipped...

Nous Sommes Paris:  The attack in Paris is tragic and reprehensible.  Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims and the people in France.  There are several political and economic consequences, aside from the tighter security and elevated alertness.  The...

The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday's flurry that shook out some weak short euro and yen positions.  The push through $1.08 was a new opportunity to short the euro by short-term traders.  Disappointing Eurozone GDP data provided mode fodder...

The main divergence we have emphasized is in monetary policy trajectories.  The first phase, which began late last year and will run through this month, is other countries taking action to ease policy.  The Fed stood pat.  The second phase...

The US dollar continues to consolidate its recent strong gains. Its pullback is shallow is corrective in nature. Nothing has materialized to challenge the divergence meme. The US 2-year premium over Germany has edged higher still today. It is a...

The Swiss National Bank increased its ownership of US equities by about $350 mln in Q3 to $38.95 bln.  The SNB has a stake in some 2500 listed US companies.  The Russell 2000 was marginally lower in the quarter.  The...

The US dollar continues to consolidate after last week's gains amid greater confidence that the Federal Reserve will likely raise rates next month.  Similarly, after a steep sell-off, major bond markets are recovering today, partly in the face of a...

The sharp US dollar rally in response to the unequivocally strong jobs data left short-term technical indicators a bit over-extended and the consolidative tone now is not unexpected.  The dollar's pullback is minor, and it did manage to extend its...

The combination of the unequivocally strong US jobs report and the contrasting unexpected decline in German factory orders and industrial production reported last week sets the broad investment framework for the period ahead. The combination of the unequivocally strong US...

The US dollar is going into the monthly jobs report bid.  It has risen against all the major currencies, save the Australian dollar that is up less than a tenth of one percent at pixel time. There are two main...

Wednesday may begin slowly in Asia featuring the largest IPO of the year in the form of Japan Post, but it may very well prove to be one of the most important days of the month. Caixin's service and composite...