Economic Conditions

Many of the capital markets are enjoying reversals today.  Equity markets are mostly higher. The MSCI Emerging Market equity index is up more than 1%. Several key commodities, like oil and copper, are firmer.  Bond markets, outside the US, are...

Chinese shares continued last week's plunge, with the Shanghai Composite off 5.3% and the Shenzhen Composite falling 6.6%.  Both indices closed on their lows.  With the apparent help of officials, the onshore yuan strengthened, though the real squeeze was in...

A tumultuous start of the year saw the US dollar turn in a mixed performance.  Emerging market currencies and the dollar-bloc softened.  Sterling was in this camp, losing about 1.2% against the dollar.  On the other hand, the euro, Swiss...

US grew nearly 300k jobs in December.  The October and November jobs growth revised up by 50k.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, even though the participation rate ticked up.  If there was a disappointment it was that hourly...

For the first time this week, the PBOC set higher central reference rate for the yuan and Chinese shares rallied, with the apparent assistance of officials, after abandoning the circuit breakers.  This, coupled with somewhat firmer oil prices, is helping...

One might be forgiven for believing that nail-baiting start to the year is all China's fault.  It has repeatedly for eight sessions fixed the yuan lower, including earlier today, at a seemingly accelerating pace.  The new circuit breakers, introduced on...

The US dollar and Japanese yen have begun the year on a firm note, as have bonds, while equities markets have moved lower.  This continues unabated today.  Another consistency is the weakness in the Chinese yuan.  The PBOC fixed the...

The markets are in turmoil.  Global equity markets are sharply lower, dragging bond yields down.  The risk-off move has propelled the yen sharply higher.  Its 1.4% advance has seen the dollar slump to JPY118.70, its lowest level since mid-October.  The markets...

The US dollar firmed against nearly all the major currencies in the last week of 2015.  The exceptions were the Antipodean currencies and the Japanese yen. The relatively high short-term yields offered Australia, and New Zealand may have attracted some...

Many financial centers in Asia and Europe are on holiday today, and those that are open, are experiencing a minimum of activity.  Turnover may pick up briefly in the North American morning, but conditions will remain thin and only those...

The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed in uneventful and light turnover. The euro has been confined to less than a third of a cent range. Yesterday it briefly dipped below its 20-day moving average...

Australia, New Zealand, UK markets closed for Boxing Day.  After rallying last week, oil prices are off 2%, base and precious metals lower.  European core and peripheral bond markets are highs, with yields slipping mostly 2-3 bp.  There is no...

The US dollar traded heavily in the holiday-shortened week.  It slipped against all the major currencies.  The recovery in commodity prices, the new stimulus Chinese officials suggested, and the relatively high yields conspired to help lift the dollar-bloc currencies.  Them...

China's Central Economic Work Conference is responsible for setting the annual GDP target. Although it was not formally announced, President Xi previously indicated that the goal for the economy to expand by around 6.5% a year through 2020.  More telling...

The election in Spain did not lift the uncertainty but re-redoubled it.  Given the outcome, it is difficult envision a majority government.  Purely looking at the numbers, a coalition between the Popular Party and the Socialists is simplest solution.  It...