Economic Conditions

The broad interpretative framework we developed since late 2014, one that centers the de-synchronization of the major economies, will retain its usefulness into the New Year and beyond. The Federal Reserve standing pat after winding down their open-ended asset purchase...

The dollar rose against all the major currencies over the past week.  The divergence meme we have emphasized has continued to unfold.  The ECB eased policy at the start of the month.  Less than 48 hours after the Fed hiked...

The US dollar is firmer against the euro, sterling and yen, but within the ranges seen before the weekend. The greenback is softer against the dollar-bloc currencies after early gains were unwound. The US dollar is firmer against the euro,...

After much hemming and hawing since mid-year, the Federal Reserve is finally poised to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Indeed, given the speeches by the leadership and the economic data, especially the labor market readings,...

The US dollar is firm against the dollar-bloc currencies, and sterling, but is heavier against the euro and yen.  The 13th consecutive year-over-year decline in China's imports helped keep the pressure on the commodity producers.  Despite New Zealand reporting strong...

The exaggerated response to last week's ECB meeting continues to unwind.  Draghi's dovish comments and the strength of US employment data have helped keep the divergence meme front and center.  The exaggerated response to last week's ECB meeting continues to...

China joined the SDR, with a weight that puts it in third place behind the dollar and euro.  The ECB did ease policy. It delivered a 10 bp cut in the deposit rate (now -30 bp), extended its asset purchase...

After the ECB's disappointment yesterday market nerves were shattered, but the largely as expected US jobs data may help the focus return to the underlying fundamental fact.  The ECB just eased policy.  Not as much as the market expected, and...

The anticipation is nearly over.  The softer than expected preliminary EMU inflation figures encourages expectations for the more aggressive range of actions by the ECB tomorrow.  Draghi has claimed that movement toward the inflation target was too slow.  Today's data...

The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias today amid some last minute position squaring ahead of the key events of the week, which are stacked in the second half.  The ECB meeting and US jobs data are the...

The week ahead is among the most important of the year.  Rarely is there such a confluence of events in a short period that will have far-reaching implications for investors known ahead of time and discussed so extensively.  One implications...

Anticipating a yawning divergence of monetary policy between the world's largest central banks, market participants continued to drive the dollar higher over the past week.  In fact, the greenback appreciated against all the major and emerging market currencies except the...

The US dollar remains firm, even if it has eased from its seven-month high against the euro and five-year high against the Swiss franc recorded yesterday.  The US October personal consumption expenditure was disappointing, and prompted some downward revision to...

The US dollar is trading choppily but with a distinct softer bias.  The economic news has been limited, and the apparent downing of a Russian plane by Turkey caused a flurry of activity, with Turkish assets coming under initial pressure...

The global financial crisis (GFC) that precipitated the worldwide great recession in 2008 has largely subsided. Capital markets are generally operating smoothly, liquidity restored and new initiatives toward financial regulation aim at reducing the likelihood of recurrence. However, in other...