Economic Conditions

The US dollar recorded mixed performance last week.  Consolidative technical pressure, after it spurted higher at the end of the previous week with the help of a dovish ECB and rate cuts by the PBOC, and month-end pressures dominated.  There...

Protests against austerity continue to roil parts of Europe, most recently in Brussels earlier this month when 100,000 people took to the streets and police deployed water cannons. Protests against austerity continue to roil parts of Europe, most recently in...

The combination of the dovish signals from the European Central Bank and the rate cut by the People’s Bank of China lifted the US dollar just as it was threatening to fall through the lower end of its recent ranges. ...

From the Federal Reserve's reluctance to raise interest rates in September, through the soft employment and retail sales report, and two Fed Governors arguing against a rate hike this year, the pendulum of expectations has swung hard.  The implied yield...

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week.  It recovered in the second half of the week against the euro and yen.  It was an unusual week in that the New Zealand dollar was the strongest of the...

  Markets and economists have long been obsessed with the Fed's first interest rate hike in nine years, but it seems the factors are not reciprocating positively to what the Fed is looking for. Reports on labor and emerging economies coupled with...

I remain a dollar bull on a medium and longer-term basis, but recognize that stale longs are bailing, and there is an establishment of new momentum shorts.  I remain a dollar bull on a medium and longer-term basis, but recognize...

Yesterday's mostly counter-trend moves ended abruptly.  A second governor of the Federal Reserve voiced opposition to the intimation by Yellen and Fischer, and several regional presidents that a rate hike is still appropriate this year.  This helped renew the downside...

The recent trends in the global capital markets are reversing today.  Although the price action yesterday warned of the risk, there have been five fundamental developments that are contributing to the price action today.  The first development was China's September...

Amid light news, the downward pressure on the US dollar has continued against the majors but emerging market currencies are a mixed picture.  The key driver is the spate of comments from the Fed's Fischer, the ECB's Draghi, and BOJ's...

There is a sense that the markets are at crossroads.  Many suspect, there has been a trend change.   The reason for many to buy the dollar was the Fed was going to raise interest rates.  Lift-off may not be simply...

The US dollar is on its back foot. It was already sporting a softer bias and the FOMC minutes had a dovish twist.  A Wall Street Journal poll found 64% of economists expect a hike in December, and while the...

The US dollar has eased to new lows for the week against the euro and yen.  There does not seem to be a big fundamental driver.  If anything the weakness in German exports, following as it does the soft orders...

Since the Federal Reserve left rates on hold on September 17, the dollar-bloc currencies have outperformed the euro, yen, and sterling, all three of which are lower against the dollar.  So far this week the New Zealand dollar is the...

The US dollar's recovery gains pared following the drop in response to the poor jobs data, except against the yen.  There the greenback extended its gains toward JPY120.25, with the help of weak Japanese data, and speculation that the BOJ...