Economic Conditions

The unexpectedly poor September US jobs data weakened the greenback's technical tone, as questions about the underlying strength of the world's largest economy, and the implications for the Fed's take-off, intensify.  US economic data scheduled to release in the week...

The global capital markets are stabilizing in Europe after continued selling in Asia after the US slide yesterday.  The dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies.  Higher oil and copper prices have helped the helped steady the Australian dollar. ...

Sterling and the yen are gaining against the dollar while the other major currencies are little changed, and emerging currencies are mixed.  Sterling's has gained about 0.35%, mostly in the European morning, and appears largely driven by demand on the...

The world economy has seen many changes this year. Interestingly, in many cases theory seemed far from what happened practically in the global financial markets. While many questioned the effect China on various economies, Eurozone was going through its own...

After a few sessions of light news, the flash Chinese Caixin flash manufacturing PMI and EMU PMIs provided new economic insight.  However, the macro-picture has not changed very much.  China's economy has not bottomed while European growth appears to remain...

Temporal Inconsistencies at the Fed:  The Fed's decision to delay the beginning of the normalization of monetary policy of undermines confidence in when lift-off will actually take place. Temporal Inconsistencies at the Fed:  The Fed's decision to delay the beginning...

The US dollar trades narrowly mixed to start what could be a pivotal week.  The week has two parts: before and after the FOMC meeting.  Before the meeting, we expect broad consolidation, with a modest downside bias in the dollar,...

A flood of data comes in the week ahead.  The US reports consumer prices, retail sales and industrial output figures. The Eurozone reports industrial production and the final August CPI.  Germany releases the ZEW.  The UK reports consumer prices, the...

The global capital markets are subdued as the week draws to a close.  Asian stocks, while European bourses are heavier.  Bonds are firm.  The dollar itself is little changed against the major currencies.  The global capital markets are subdued as...

The RBNZ cut rates 25 bp to 2.75%.  It was already discounted, but what punished the kiwi was the intimation by Wheeler of scope for additional rate cuts.  Another cut looks likely by the end of the year.  The New Zealand...

Recession. Recession. Recession. In Canada, Belgium, Czech Republic, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Taiwan, Slovenia, the Netherlands, Brazil and Russia. They’ve all either had recent recessions, are in deep danger, or have one now. Who’s next? Not us. We hope. Australia has...

1.  China's reserves fell by almost $94 bln in August.   This was a little more than the Bloomberg consensus but not as large as the $200 bln some had suggested.  Valuation considerations, often ignored in discussions of Chinese reserves, did...

There are three, and arguably interrelated, known unknowns that are seemingly on everyone's mind.  First is the decline in global equity markets. Is this simply a long overdue correction? Wasn't August 24 some sort of capitulation?  Is this a re-test...

The US dollar gained against most of the major currencies last week. A notable exception was the Japanese yen.  Steep equity losses and drop in bond yields provided the yen with the customary fillip. The various economic reports, including the...

The closure of Chinese markets today has removed an agitator and contributed to the calmer tone in the global capital markets.  Sweden's Riskbank decision to policy on hold has sent the krona up nearly 1% against the US dollar.  It...