A Preview of Emerging Market News and Events
EM assets remain on the defensive now that the dollar has regained some traction on the back of some firmer US data last week. This Friday’s US jobs report will be key to determine whether the dollar’s current bounce is...
A Weak Euro Begins the Week as European Manufacturing Data Disappoints
The week begins with a narrowly mixed US dollar. Both Tokyo and London markets are closed today making for somewhat lighter turnover. The dollar has been trading a quarter of a yen above JPY120.00. The euro stands out. It has...
Japan’s Population is Aging…Quickly
The ageing of Japan’s population is globally unprecedented in both its level and its speed. The ageing of Japan’s population is globally unprecedented in both its level and its speed. The proportion of people aged 65 years old and over...
An Emerging Markets Status Update
1) Unconventional policy measure in China could be on the table; 2) Poland sold sells its first international bond with a negative yield; 3) Indonesia executed eight people over drug charges, seven of which were foreigners; 4) Russia’s central Bank...
South Korea’s Migration Policies Are In Need Of Reform
North and South Korea are widely regarded to be ethnically homogenous societies. But with minority populations having grown in numbers and importance in both Koreas, demographic homogeneity has become a myth. Yet the importance of ethnic nationalism as an underlying...
Japan’s Revival Could Be Its Neighbors’ Worry
For more than two decades, Japan has been caught up in a slow-burning crisis. Rapid aging population and low productivity have added to the declining financial health of the country. Japan’s public debt is twice the size of its annual...
The Euro Reaches a Buying Opportunity, European Bonds Continue to Sell Off on Mixed Data
The euro pullback spurred by the Federal Reserve statement that continued to regard the slowdown as having to been partly caused by transitory factors, was seized upon in Europe as a new buying opportunity. Support is seen near previous resistance...
What Would ‘Unconventional Monetary Policy’ from the PBOC Look Like?
Press reports suggest that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is considering unconventional monetary policies, including direct purchases of local government bonds and/or some sort of long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) using local government bonds as collateral. While there is no...
Japan’s Abe Moves Closer to His Ultimate Goal for the JA
The Abe administration’s policy of separating the organisational interests of JA-Zenchu, the peak body of agricultural cooperatives (JA), from the interests of the prefectural central unions (chÅ«Åkai) and local cooperatives and farmers generally paid off in April’s local government elections....
‘Economic-Only’ vs. ‘Economic-Plus-Political’ EU Membership
Norway is often held aloft as an example that the UK could follow in discussions about a potential British exit from the EU (the so-called Brexit). The Norwegian experience with the EU is unique. It shows it is possible for a...
India’s Modi Meets His Indian Ocean Neighbors
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka reflects New Delhi’s changed foreign policy priorities. It signals that India is no longer willing to be outmanoeuvred in the Indian Ocean region — its strategic backyard....
A Preview of Emerging Market News and Events
It is a mixed start of the week for EM, though the short-term outlook is constructive. The rebound in commodity prices has changed relative risk perception across the producer-importer spectrum. Iron ore, for example, is up some 25% since the...
Should China’s ‘Dynamic Growth’ Model Serve Other Countries Economic Aspirations?
China’s revival of ‘South–South’ economic relations raises the opportunity of re-balancing global power. This could have profound implications for economic progress, including poverty reduction and structural change, in the developing world. China’s revival of ‘South–South’ economic relations raises the opportunity...
Modernizing Indonesia’s Financial Sector
Reforms of the financial sector in Indonesia since 1997 have mitigated the key risk factors that caused the economic crisis of 1997. The first of these was structural weaknesses in the financial sector, particularly the banking system. The second was...
An Emerging Markets Status Update
Over the last week, Hungary (+4.8%), Brazil (+4.6%), and Russia (+4.4%) have outperformed in the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, while India (-4.5%), Thailand (-2.3%), and Egypt (-2.0%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM...