Markets

The US dollar, stocks, and bonds are largely moving within yesterday's ranges as investors wait for fresh developments.  A notable exception to this generalization is oil prices.  News of a potential agreement with Iran weighs on prices, as it is...

EM remains caught in global crosscurrents that are mostly negative. If risk off sentiment ebbs as Greek and Chinese tail risks fall, then that simply brings the focus back on the looming Fed lift-off. We expect EM to remain under...

In the past two decades, China’s state-owned sector has experienced drastic reforms. Paradoxically, today the largest companies are increasingly productive, yet most remain state-owned. In early summer, President Xi Jinping called on officials to deepen reform of state-owned enterprises. China...

There appears to be growing euphoria that it is India’s ‘manifest destiny’ to overtake China and become the fastest growing major economy and a major world power. But unless India successfully introduces productivity reforms and opens its markets, this ‘destiny’...

There are two broad courses for the capital markets in the week ahead. The first is a continuation of what we have experienced for the past two weeks. Greece's financial and political crisis, and the dramatic drop in Chinese shares,...

1. The BRICS central banks sign an accord on $100 bln foreign currency pool.  2. South African union AMCU declared a dispute with gold producers over wages.  3. China’s recent actions to stabilize equity markets became increasingly desperate.  4. Argentina...

There is a growing sense of optimism that Greece and its creditors will strike a deal.  There is also a sense that although nearly half of China's stocks are still frozen, that the dramatic sell-off is over.  There is a...

Good times for Australia kept rolling whilst prices and demand for our resources were high. However, boom-time is on the wane, manufacturing is squeezed, and it is time for a serious where-to-from-here conversation about the nation’s economy. Good times for...

The Chinese stock markets have experienced significant turmoil in recent weeks, with the Shanghai Composite Index – the country’s major reference – falling by 32% since June 12. However, this fall was preceded by an equally sharp rise of 150%...

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in trouble. He and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) romped to power in 2014 on an anti-graft and pro-governance platform. Today, thanks to what is being popularly dubbed as ‘Lalitgate’, both Modi and his...

Russia kicked off three days of high-level summitry on July 8, hosting leaders of several Asian and developing countries that it hopes will form the foundation of a new, non-Western world order. Russia kicked off three days of high-level summitry...

Around the world, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is perhaps most famous for his ‘Abenomics’ program to revive Japan’s economy. So far, it has not worked — mainly because it has not really been tried. Only the first of the...

Investors remain off balance.  The Greek financial crisis and the future of the irrevocable monetary union will take a few more days to play out.  The Chinese stock market's dramatic fall after an incredible bull move continues, and nearly half...

Commodities are back under pressure, sending ripples through various assets classes. Let us start with a recap of recent moves and drivers.  In short, it looks like the risks are still bearish for energy and industrial metals, but not so...

Extensive commentary on the latest Indian GDP growth numbers has been unable to clear prevailing confusion on whether the economy is in its recovery phase or not. It would be more useful to focus on the data that the ordinary...