Markets

EM ended the week on a mixed note after posting strong post-FOMC gains. The bounce in risk seems likely to continue this week, with little on the horizon to derail it. Specific country risk remains in play, however, with heightened...

In the EM equity space, China (+5.1%), South Africa (+3.8%), and Turkey (+3.6%) have outperformed this week, while Thailand (-0.7%), Qatar (-0.7%), and Colombia (-0.3%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 3.3% this week while...

Not long ago, the Malaysian government thought that mastery of the internet was a path towards economic development. In February 1996, it launched the Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC), essentially a special economic zone, to entice high-technology corporations like Microsoft to...

Since West Papua’s integration into Indonesia in 1969 through a United Nations-sponsored people’s referendum — a process considered deeply flawed — the Papuans’ problems have haunted all Indonesian presidents. A critical juncture came after the downfall of the authoritarian regime...

Today, Europe is struggling with a series of old and new challenges. Hard choices can no longer be deferred.  For half a decade, Europe has struggled with excessive debt (which remains excessively high), fiscal adjustment (which has failed to revive...

The dispute over China's “market economy status” (MES) divides Europe by countries and industries.  It stems from China’s 2001 agreement to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which Beijing believes required countries to grant MES to China within 15 years...

As climatic and environmental changes increase the accessibility of the Arctic, opening up the possibility of shorter shipping lanes and the ability to tap into large natural resource deposits, states within the region and beyond are beginning to look north....

Global growth has been tepid since the global financial crisis broke out almost 10 years ago, having declined from an average of 4.5 percent during the five years preceding the crisis to 3.5 percent over the past five years. Both...

The EU leaders’ summit on refugees begins tomorrow.   A conclusive agreement will likely be elusive.   There are three main obstacles.  First, the effort to reinforce the external borders to allow free internal movement requires Turkey's cooperation, but it will not...

Over the past three decades, global interest in emerging markets has soared, and when the financial crisis of 2008 hit, emerging markets were largely thought to be the next engine of global growth. Insofar as they have complied with this...

If UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne wants to position himself to be the next Prime Minister, the budget to be unveiled tomorrow may not be particularly helpful.  There is little room to relax fiscal policy, given the self-imposed constraints. ...

The Sri Lankan economy appears to exist in a system that can evolve only through crisis. Optimistic policymakers, predicting that the country’s economic trajectory would self-correct, received a collective wake-up call in February with a sovereign rating downgrade by Fitch,...

The Bank of Japan had a difficult start into 2016. The latest data shows that inflation in the last quarter of 2015 was lower than expected. Furthermore, doubts are increasing about the recovery of the economy. At the end of...

The rise of China has created new uncertainties. A crucial question is whether China actively seeks an alternative to the existing US-led liberal regional order. In addition, if it does, what sort of order would it be? In 2000, Aron...

The introduction of negative interest rates in Japan and the subsequent chance for yields has seen domestic investors move further out on the curve.  They have also stepped up their purchases of foreign bonds. In three weeks (through March 4)...