Markets

19 April 2016

India’s Budget Take Three

When India voted in the Narendra Modi government with a stable majority in the last election in 2014 it was widely expected to pave the way for major changes. However, political obstacles and a tendency to follow the path of...

18 April 2016

Under the Surface of the Australian Sub Deal

Australia’s selection of a replacement for its Collins-Class submarine, termed the SEA1000 program, is entering its final stages. The competitive evaluation process set up by Australian government is nearing completion as the five-person Advisory Expert Panel finishes its consideration of...

18 April 2016

Emerging Market Setup: Relative Strength Persists

EM ended last week on a firm note.  Given the absence of any Fed-specific risks or any major US data releases, that firmness could carry over into this week.  The failure to reach an agreement in Doha by oil producers...

15 April 2016

If Britain Leaves the EU, Will Investors Leave Britain?

Foreign investors love Britain, but Brexit would kill the vibe. According to new research colleagues and I have conducted at the Centre for Economic Performance, leaving the European Union could lead to a fall in inward foreign direct investment into the...

15 April 2016

Indonesia Stumbles Into More Natural Resource Bets

Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) order on 23 March 2016 that the Masela Block use an onshore Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) refinery ended six months of intrigue — and years of delay — about Indonesia’s largest offshore gas field. Rather...

15 April 2016

Mostly Central Bank and Government Headlines in the EM Space

Bank Indonesia will use the 7-day reverse repo rate as its new benchmark policy rate, the ruling party in South Korea unexpectedly lost parliamentary elections, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy to recession settings, Turkey has nominated its...

15 April 2016

The Market Brushes off Questionable Chinese Data

China's slew of economic data lends credence to ideas that the world's second-largest economy may be stabilizing.  However, the data failed to have a wider impact on the global capital markets, including supporting Chinese equities. In fact, the seven-day advance...

14 April 2016

China: Dam Nation

China’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Brahmaputra River (known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet) recently became fully operational. The $1.5 billion 510 megawatt Zangmu hydroelectric dam has brought in its wake a flood of concerns, especially in India, regarding its...

14 April 2016

Sri Lanka…What Went Wrong?

Last year, soon after taking power as president of Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirisena requested a US$4 billion loan from the IMF to restructure its debt repayments. The bailout package was rejected by the IMF. It warned the government instead to...

14 April 2016

BOE Recognizing Brexit Talks’ Economic Toll

No one can feign surprise that the Bank of England kept policy steady.  Nor was the 9-0 vote truly surprising, though there had been some speculation that of a couple of dovish dissents.  Nevertheless, there are two important takeaways for...

13 April 2016

The Chart with Two Scales: A Cautionary Tale

There is a common ploy used by many analysts and reporters that often simply does not stand up to close scrutiny, and would in fact be mocked in the university.  The ploy is to take two time series and put...

11 April 2016

Low Oil Price Benefits to South Korea

The global energy situation is changing rapidly. The shale revolution has led to plunging oil prices that have remained around US$30 a barrel since OPEC’s failure to reach a consensus to cut oil production at its November 2014 meeting. This...