India’s Budget Take Three
When India voted in the Narendra Modi government with a stable majority in the last election in 2014 it was widely expected to pave the way for major changes. However, political obstacles and a tendency to follow the path of...
Under the Surface of the Australian Sub Deal
Australia’s selection of a replacement for its Collins-Class submarine, termed the SEA1000 program, is entering its final stages. The competitive evaluation process set up by Australian government is nearing completion as the five-person Advisory Expert Panel finishes its consideration of...
Emerging Market Setup: Relative Strength Persists
EM ended last week on a firm note. Given the absence of any Fed-specific risks or any major US data releases, that firmness could carry over into this week. The failure to reach an agreement in Doha by oil producers...
If Britain Leaves the EU, Will Investors Leave Britain?
Foreign investors love Britain, but Brexit would kill the vibe. According to new research colleagues and I have conducted at the Centre for Economic Performance, leaving the European Union could lead to a fall in inward foreign direct investment into the...
Indonesia Stumbles Into More Natural Resource Bets
Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) order on 23 March 2016 that the Masela Block use an onshore Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) refinery ended six months of intrigue — and years of delay — about Indonesia’s largest offshore gas field. Rather...
Mostly Central Bank and Government Headlines in the EM Space
Bank Indonesia will use the 7-day reverse repo rate as its new benchmark policy rate, the ruling party in South Korea unexpectedly lost parliamentary elections, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy to recession settings, Turkey has nominated its...
The Market Brushes off Questionable Chinese Data
China's slew of economic data lends credence to ideas that the world's second-largest economy may be stabilizing. However, the data failed to have a wider impact on the global capital markets, including supporting Chinese equities. In fact, the seven-day advance...
China: Dam Nation
China’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Brahmaputra River (known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet) recently became fully operational. The $1.5 billion 510 megawatt Zangmu hydroelectric dam has brought in its wake a flood of concerns, especially in India, regarding its...
Sri Lanka…What Went Wrong?
Last year, soon after taking power as president of Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirisena requested a US$4 billion loan from the IMF to restructure its debt repayments. The bailout package was rejected by the IMF. It warned the government instead to...
BOE Recognizing Brexit Talks’ Economic Toll
No one can feign surprise that the Bank of England kept policy steady. Nor was the 9-0 vote truly surprising, though there had been some speculation that of a couple of dovish dissents. Nevertheless, there are two important takeaways for...
The Chart with Two Scales: A Cautionary Tale
There is a common ploy used by many analysts and reporters that often simply does not stand up to close scrutiny, and would in fact be mocked in the university. The ploy is to take two time series and put...
How are the U.K.’s Police and Crime Commissioners Working Out?
Voters across 40 police force areas in England and Wales will go to the polls next month to choose their next police and crime commissioner (PCC). This is the second round of such elections. The first cohort of 41 PCCs...
The South Korean President may have to Redefine ‘Winner’
General elections are around the corner for South Korea, scheduled for 13 April 2016. The road to the polls has been rocky, beginning with the delayed approval of electoral boundaries. The redrawn electoral map was finally passed on 2 March,...
After the South Korean Election, Gridlock Likely to Remain
South Korea goes to the polls on 13 April. Up for grabs are the 300 seats of the unicameral National Assembly. However, the election itself has been overshadowed by the declining popularity of President Park Geun-hye and intense infighting within...
Low Oil Price Benefits to South Korea
The global energy situation is changing rapidly. The shale revolution has led to plunging oil prices that have remained around US$30 a barrel since OPEC’s failure to reach a consensus to cut oil production at its November 2014 meeting. This...