Markets

With the all the euphoria about the Chinese currency depreciation apparently behind us, we can again focus on other drivers for EM assets. In addition, these are developments in G10, commodity prices and idiosyncratic factors. We do not expect any...

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s much-anticipated statement to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the Pacific War provoked relief, surprise and some ambiguity for the future. It was a relief because there had been some reports that Abe...

When policy think tank the American Action Forum tried to put a number on the gig economy last month, it triggered considerable debate on just how much the sector is really contributing to jobs growth. Workers in the “gig economy”...

The decline in the yuan is not very large, and the way in which it happened is not very nefarious. The Chinese central bank normally intervenes heavily in the currency market and they have historically kept it closely linked to...

News that the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, changed its formula for calculating the reference rate of the yuan (RMB) prompted the currency to fall to a four-year low. News that the People’s Bank of China, the...

1) China has changed its FX regime, 2) No coalition likely for Turkey; elections in sight, 3) Moody’s downgraded Brazil one notch to Baa3, but did not assign a negative outlook, 4) Baxico sounded a bit more hawkish, at least...

After many decades of driving regional growth, the economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now slowing down, and this is likely going to have a noticeable effect on the world economy and especially globally integrated economies in...

Indonesia became a middle-income country in 2004. Indonesia’s growth rates — while superior to those of most developing countries — remain below those of East Asia’s most dynamic economies. So why hasn’t the country grown faster still and why does...

Recently, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) awarded the 2022 Winter Games to Beijing, in a joint bid with the city of Zhangjiakou, the capital’s “northern door” adjoining mountains with ski resorts. In the West, the response has been apprehensive, presumably...

Chinese officials surprised the market by instituting a mini-devaluation of the yuan.  Announcing the highest dollar fix in two years signaled the 1.9% move.  Officials indicated that this was a one-off move in response to the appreciation of the real...

The main drivers of demand for agricultural products are population growth, urbanisation, economic growth and changing diets. Population growth brings greater demand, urbanisation leads to more people buying food rather than producing their own, economic growth increases purchasing power while...

There has been a great deal of soul-searching about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s statement on the anniversary of the end of the Pacific War. On 15 August 1945, Emperor Hirohito made his ‘jewel voice broadcast’ of surrender to the Allied...

Japan reported a smaller than expected June current account surplus.  Seasonally, June tends experience deterioration from May.  In fact, only twice in the past ten years has the current account improved in June over May.  On the other hand, investors...

EM is starting the week with a mixed tone.  EM currencies are on the weaker side but EM equities are generally firmer, especially in China as weaker data spur calls for more stimulus.  Stabilizing commodity prices are also helping sentiment,...

1) Poland’s lower house unexpectedly voted on a new legislation that would increase the burden of FX-linked mortgages losses to banks.  2) The popularity of the Chilean and Brazilian presidents continue to tumble. 1) Poland’s lower house unexpectedly voted on...