What’s Really Going On in Africa’s Middle Class?
Since the turn of the century, the middle classes of the global South have taken centre stage in economic policy circles. Animated by diversification of some countries’ economies, a handful of economists from international agencies and think-tanks began a discourse...
Philippine President Duterte Walks the Walk
There may be more to the Philippines’ new president Rodrigo Duterte than his tough guy image indicates. In the populist theatrics that are Filipino politics, the overwhelming election of Duterte should not have come as a surprise, even with common,...
The Brexit and Vector Autoregressive Analysis…What?
Over 90 pages, the British Treasury’s latest referendum attempts to identify the short-term economic effects of a vote to leave on June 23 – aka Brexit. When the Treasury tweeted the publication late on the morning of May 23 it was...
U.S. Interest in India’s Defense Needs is Way Up
On 10–13 April, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter paid his third visit in just 30 months to India — the seventh by a US Defense Secretary since 2008. The frequency of high-level visits reflects the prominence accorded to New Delhi...
Emerging Markets’ Rocky Road
EM had another rocky week, but managed to end on a slightly firmer note Friday. Market repricing of Fed tightening risk was the big driver last week, and that could carry over into this week. There are several Fed speakers...
New Philippine President Duterte’s ‘To Do List’ is a Long One
While the Aquino reforms ignited great progress in the Philippines, the new president will favor inclusive growth and greater pragmatism in foreign policies that will shape Southeast Asia’s future. While the Aquino reforms ignited great progress in the Philippines, the...
Eurozone Economy: Outlook (Near-Term), Problems and Solutions
This is an abridged version of this article. For the full article please see here. I was in Belgium in 2011-2012, when I witnessed the escalating ferocity with which the sovereign debt crisis undermined confidence and economic activity across the...
Africa (not exactly) Rising
Self-congratulatory rhetoric keeps springing from the lips of World Economic Forum elites – at the expense of reality. Software executive Brett Parker claims “Africa will probably remain natural resources-driven for the next two decades at least.” African Leadership University’s Fred Swaniker ...
India’s Job Creation Data not Reflective of Good Times
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promise of ‘good days’ that underpinned his 2013 election campaign is premised on moving India away from its dole-and-entitlement development model to one that empowers youth by generating large-scale employment. In that context, recently released employment...
China’s Economy: Mostly Planned or Mostly Market
There is a recurring question on the nature of China’s economy — is it mostly planned or mostly market? This question has become more concrete this year as China’s partners are scheduled to decide on whether or not to grant...
Japan is Aging and Shrinking, but there are Little Signs of Panic
The population of Japan peaked in 2008 at 128 million. With the fertility rate — or births per woman — falling below 1.5 at the beginning of the 1990s and falling as low as 1.29 in 2004, the population is...
Combating India’s High Youth Unemployment through Education Reform
The Jat reservation agitation has caused considerable social and economic trauma in India, especially in the national capital region around New Delhi. The agitation began as a series of protests in Haryana in February 2016 by the Jat people who...
Positive Dollar Sentiment, Idiosyncratic Risks Weigh on Emerging Markets
EM ended last week on a soft note, and that weakness seems likely to carry over into this week. Dollar sentiment turned more positive after firm retail sales data on Friday, though US rates markets have yet to reflect any...
Investigating Another Olympic Bid’s Cleanliness
MOTOKO / Shutterstock.com MOTOKO / Shutterstock.com Say it ain’t so, Tokyo. Those were my thoughts when I saw the Guardian’s allegations over the Japanese capital’s winning bid for the 2020 Olympic Games: French police are reportedly investigating an alleged €1.3 million (£1m)...
India is Giving its Trade Strategies a Rethink
India’s approach in negotiating regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) is again in sharp focus. Concern is rising over long delays in concluding a number of major agreements of which India is a part. Foremost among these is the...