Markets

The Bank of Japan meets later this week.  We do not think that it will expand its already aggressive monetary policy stance.  Given the largely operational adjustments announced last month, it seems premature to expect substantive adjustment now.  It is...

There is no doubt that China is building up its military capabilities. Nor that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe played up the threat of China, which spends three times as much as Japan does on its national defence, as a...

EM enjoyed a nice bounce to end last week. The global liquidity outlook has clearly moved in favor of EM, at least for now.  However, the overall global backdrop has not shifted in favor of EM just yet.  Bottom line: ...

1) Malaysia’s central bank kept rates steady at 3.25%, as expected, but cut bank reserve ratios from 4% to 3.5%, 2) S&P downgraded Poland one notch to BBB+ with negative outlook, 3) Brazil’s central bank did a complete about-face and...

China has posted its lowest annual GDP growth since 1990. The slowdown is seen as a major concern for some investors, but against a backdrop of disappointing consumer spending, intensifying deflationary pressures, tepid export growth, and a stock market that...

There have been a couple of notable signals about the upcoming EU referendum lately. A public opinion poll showed a clear majority lead for Brexit, then a Financial Times poll of more than 100 leading economists concluded that a vote...

When the 18th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) decided to abolish the one-child policy in October 2015 it made headlines throughout the world. However, while the abolition of the policy is the result of the Chinese government’s...

Last year was a challenging year for South Korea’s democracy. Since the inauguration of the Park Geun-hye government in 2013, there have been a number of incidents that raise serious questions about the soundness and maturity of South Korea’s democracy....

These days, political death in China comes in two moves. The first is when the dreaded Central Discipline and Inspection Commission (CDIC) announce that you are under investigation. After that, you live on a sort of life-support machine until the...

The sudden, sharp fall of Chinese stock prices twice in 2015 and again this month does not necessarily herald a further slowdown of GDP growth. However, investor confidence, the bedrock of a healthy economy, has been shaken both in China...

EM ended last week on a sour note. The most important factor for global risk appetite has become China, with the Fed tightening cycle now on the back burner.  Our base case remains that China muddles through, but policymakers there...

The US stock market and the oil market appear joined at the hip. The Great Graphic here, created on Bloomberg, shows the correlation of the two markets.  It is near 0.77, which is the highest since September 2013.  The correlation...

China’s southern province, Guangdong, is emerging as a globally important innovation zone and consumer market. It moves into the future as it builds a post-industrial society. The forces that once boosted Guangdong’s dramatic economic boom – industrialization, booming world trade,...

1) The Hong Kong dollar posted its biggest two-day decline since 1992, 2) Bank Indonesia restarted its easing cycle, cutting rates for the first time since February 2015, 3) Poland’s current Monetary Policy Council (RPP) held its last policy meeting,...

Last year was a high voltage year for Indian politics. Debates and deliberations across political and non-political arenas focused on the values and institutions forming the bedrock of Indian democracy. Questions of tolerance, secularity, the right to free speech and...