The Impact of the ECB’s Decisions Regarding Greek Debt Largely Confined to Greece
The main story today is not that the ECB will no longer (as of February 11) accept Greek government bonds as collateral and that Greek banks can have access to the national central bank via the Emergency Lending Assistance. That...
Can Britain Overcome Sluggish Growth in Real Wages and Productivity?
Two things stand out about the economic recovery in Britain. One is the sluggish growth in real wages. The other is the sluggish growth in productivity. That the two phenomena have coincided is no accident. Low real wages, by eroding...
Few Will Miss India’s Planning Commission
The Planning Commission is dead: long live the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI).The role and remit of India’s new planning institution has been under debate ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day address announced the demise...
Is Shanghai’s Dropping of the Provincial GDP Growth Target the Start of a Trend?
For years, Chinese officials and foreign analysts have been obsessed with China’s GDP growth figures. There has been a widespread belief that if GDP growth dips below 8 percent, there would be massive upheaval. This widely held perception turned out...
The Oil Business is Still Big Business in Indonesia
Indonesia’s ‘oil bonanza’ is now over. It ceased to be a net oil exporter and became a net importer in 2004. Indonesia currently produces only slightly above 800,000 barrels per day while the consumption level is about 1.4 million barrels...
A Preview of this Week’s Events Among the Emerging Markets
Waning risk appetite along with growing uncertainty in Europe about Greece have set up emerging markets for a difficult week. In addition, the wave of monetary policy easing and expectations for further easing by EM central banks has removed another...
Exploring the Factors Keeping the U.S. Dollar and Economy Strong
The bull case for the US dollar rests on two legs. The first is that the policy response to the crisis has produced superior economic results in the US that would lead to the Fed raising rates later this year....
Measuring the AEC Successes
Regardless of whether or not the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will be successfully concluded by its deadline of 31 December 2015, we should not be solely obsessing about its ability to deliver its ‘single market’ objective on time: the AEC...
An Emerging Markets Status Update
Over the last week, Qatar (+3.1%), Czech Republic (+1.8%), and Poland (+1.5%) have outperformed in the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, while Russia (-10.9%), Brazil (-6.4%), and UAE (-5.8%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI...
Is Europe Stuck with the EMU?
A jacket or shirt may be reversible. Time is unidirectional, we are taught and some things simply cannot be reversed, like a hard-boiled egg.However, science has once again pulled the rug out beneath our feet. Earlier this week, ABC reported...
Maintaining the Philippines Economic Momentum
The Philippines never had it so good. But with a slowing global economy and an election coming up in 2016, what can it expect from the future? The Philippines never had it so good. But with a slowing global economy...
Is a Hindu Nationalist Agenda Slowing Modi’s Agenda?
Entering 2015 with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in power at the federal level in India, there appears to have been a metamorphosis in India’s social, political and economic environment. The BJP and its coalition was voted into power in...
China’s Financial Reforms Include Internet-Only Banking
State-owned banks have long dominated banking in China, but China wants to do things differently now. The Chinese government wants improve its financial sector by creating more confidence and responsiveness towards private customers. Lately, China has seen a lot of...
Are Cultural Changes Necessary for Shinzo Abe’s ‘womenomics’ to Succeed?
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to enable more women to participate in the Japanese workforce. But his policy has largely amounted to rhetoric and there has been no discussion of the impact of these policies for male employment....
Sri Lanka’s Opportunity to Open Up its Economy is Now
The recent election of President Maithripala Sirisena heralds a golden opportunity for Sri Lanka to heal old wounds and to open up its economy — and for the West, India and even East Asian countries to re-engage.In November 2014 the...