Economics

10 August 2015

Uninspiring Trade between China and the U.S.

US exports of goods and services to China have been practically flat since the first quarter of 2014, while Chinese exports to the United States have expanded only modestly. This is not an inspiring record. Meanwhile, two-way stocks of direct...

10 August 2015

Waiting for U.S. Retail Sales and U.K. Labor

The US dollar was unable to sustain its pre-weekend gains despite an employment report generally recognized to be sufficient to keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise rates next month. However, the poor price action has not seen follow...

10 August 2015

Setting Up the Economic Event Calendar for the Week

Investors seem to take for granted the easier monetary policy trajectories in the Eurozone and Japan. The debate has been over the timing of the normalization in the US and the UK.  Emerging talk recently said that the Bank of...

7 August 2015

The Fed’s Focus is on Jobs

While the US jobs report has been among the most important economic releases in the monthly cycle, it takes on even more significance in the run-up to the September FOMC meeting.  The dollar has been trading in a narrow range. While...

5 August 2015

China’s Approach to Negotiating Trade Agreements

The international trading system is at a crossroads. While the Doha Round of WTO negotiations remains deadlocked, new trade rules are being called for to adjust for new realities, such as the expansion of global value chains (GVCs). This means...

5 August 2015

Data Reports for Everybody Today

There are three main talking points today:  1) The divergence in the trajectory of monetary policy, illustrated by Atlanta Fed's Lockhart yesterday, and to be tested today by the ADP private sector employment estimate;   2) The July service sector PMIs;...

5 August 2015

Will They or Won’t They Raise Rates?

The Federal Reserve could be six weeks away from raising rates.  The FOMC statement from the end of last month appeared to have lowered the bar of a move.  It called the recent improvement in the labor market as "solid"...

4 August 2015

Can the TPP be a One Size Fits All?

The White House’s effort to hammer the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in Maui failed. As time is running out for President Obama’s legacy achievement, both Washington and Beijing are reassessing their options. Last week, Pacific Rim officials met on the...

4 August 2015

U.S. Renews Push for Trans-Pacific Partnership

After fierce resistance from Australia and several Asian countries, the United States is again making an aggressive move to get the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) approved in all member states. After fierce resistance from Australia and several Asian countries, the United...

4 August 2015

Dairy and the Down Under Dollar

Narrow ranges in the foreign exchange market continued for the most part, and the US dollar is a little softer.  The Reserve Bank of Australia did not talk the Aussie lower, and the data were better than expected.  This sent...

3 August 2015

Trans-Pacific Partnership Talks Stall

In a crippling blow to Barack Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, talks between nations in the partnership have collapsed. All 12 nations in the pact besides the U.S. failed to reach an agreement late last week, causing Obama and Secretary...

2 August 2015

Where a Good Originates is of Great Importance to ASEAN

Asia accounts for more than 50 percent of the world’s automobile production, 62 percent of liquid display screen, 86 percent of smart phones and 100 percent of digital cameras. Much of this production is based on production networks: that is,...