Economics

Signs of a global slowdown in economic activity persist as commodities prices fall, fears of debt defaults rise, and China shows weak manufacturing data. Signs of a global slowdown in economic activity persist as commodities prices fall, fears of debt...

Surveys suggest that a little more than 80% of the economists expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates in September.  The September Fed funds futures, the most direct market instrument, have only about a 50% chance discounted. Surveys suggest that...

On Friday (July 24), representatives of the member nations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) met in Washington, D.C. to finalize the terms of a new trade agreement to cut tariffs on $1 trillion worth of information technology products. The...

Contrasting data releases underscore the reemergence of the dollar bullish divergence meme that had appeared to stall in the vacuum of economic data in the first half of the week. Yesterday's unexpectedly large fall in US weekly initial jobless claims...

The Office for National Statistics has produced a report on sales of popular summer-related products. Official data on sales of goods are limited in that they tend to be based on annual spending, but clearly the demand for some products...

Good news from the 2015 EU–China Summit: Europe appears on track to taking itself and its relationship with China more seriously. The launch of the Connectivity Platform was an important outcome of the high-level meeting. It shows that the European...

As defence chiefs from 26 countries gathered for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore in May, all eyes were on the US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and his Chinese counterpart Admiral Sun Jianguo, Deputy Chief of the...

Canada and Israel have long enjoyed a mutually beneficial trade arrangement. That relationship strengthened even further on Tuesday when the two nations announced a new free-trade agreement expected to facilitate the import of fish and baked goods to Israel and...

The week saw a sudden calm in several markets as China showed signs of renewed economic strength and Greek banks reopened, but falling commodity prices have hurt export-driven economies’ currency values and future inflation expectations. In Greece, banks reopened earlier...

The US dollar is under pressure today.  There are many small triggers but the news stream itself is relatively mild.  Ultimately, the inability to extend last week's momentum left the dollar bulls vulnerable.  As we noted, that the momentum the...

The relatively light news stream continues to facilitate corrective action in the capital markets. The advancing streak in global equities has broken while Chinese shares continue to stabilize after their recent dramatic slide.  Peripheral bond markets are giving back some...

Leadership is one of those things about which it is sometimes wise to be careful what you wish for. Leadership is one of those things about which it is sometimes wise to be careful what you wish for. In the...

The light news stream has spurred some position squaring by short-term momentum traders.  This is giving the dollar a somewhat heavier tone, and weighing on European equity markets.  European bonds and Treasuries are little changed, though slightly firmer.  The light...

The global capital markets have entered a new phase.  The transition has partly been obscured by the crisis in Greece and the sharp fall in Chinese shares.  The policy response to those events is key.  Similarly, the policy response to...

David Cameron caught some by surprise when he announced a new consultation by the government equalities office aimed at “closing the gender pay gap.” Although the Conservative party’s 2015 election manifesto included a pledge to “achieve full gender equality”, many...